Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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970
FXUS63 KPAH 271722
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Isolated convection has developed over southeast Illinois and is
likely to continue. According to the latest CAM data the greatest
coverage (widely scattered) is likely over southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri this afternoon. The vertical wind profile is
pathetic, so these should be rather short-lived up and down
storms. Already noticing a circular outflow out of the storms in
Wayne and Hamilton counties, so some gusts 25-30 mph will be
possible, but the main threats will be locally heavy rainfall and
lightning.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Today should be a relatively quiet, but very warm, day for the
most part. A weak upper level trof will remain draped north to
south over eastern portions of the region, but this has not
managed to produce much in the way of even diurnal convection in
the past 24 hours. Some of the CAM models do suggest some pop up
instability thunderstorm activity during the heat of the day. Will
continue with isolated wording for now, with many locations once
again remaining precip free today/tonight. Some spots will flirt
with the 90 degree mark if we manage enough sunshine.

Alberto will begin to impact the region on Memorial Day in our
south/east counties. Several models continue to develop a band of
convection on the outer extremity of Alberto by midday over west
Kentucky and the Bootheel of southeast Missouri. This should
continue through the afternoon before dying out late. As the
tropical system continues to push northward and near the region
Tuesday night, expect shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage to
increase, esp over wrn KY. Locally heavy rainfall would be the
primary concern overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

By 12Z Wednesday, the upper level low associated with the remnants
of Alberto, will be situated over the eastern sections of our CWA.
As this system continue to pivot northeast out of the area
throughout the day, we will see good chances for rain, especially in
our eastern areas. Models still don`t have a perfect handle on the
timing and QPF placement obviously, but during the morning hours on
Wednesday, there will be quite a gradient of POPs with slight
chances west to likely POPs east. WPC favors the ECMWF, so that
means many areas east of the Mississippi River will likely see some
rain Wednesday morning.

By Wednesday afternoon, as the main upper system moves out, the
northwest flow pattern aloft will yield some continued precipitation
chances for the afternoon and even into the evening hours. However,
things do not look overly exciting for anything more than low end
chance POPs right now. In fact, it may end up being rather dry given
the unorganized nature of the upper pattern.

Yet another disturbance in this messy northwest flow pattern is
indicated by the models to arrive on Thursday, which means we will
have a chance for more showers and storms. But, we should see a
frontal boundary finally slide down into the area on Friday, which
will eventually help to scour the mid level moisture out of here by
late Friday into Friday night. Therefore, will go with a dry
forecast for Friday night into Saturday. Once this occurs, we will
be looking at temperatures staying in the upper 80s to lower 90s as
an upper level ridge starts building in.

Otherwise, temperatures to start out the extended period will be
relatively cool in our eastern sections due to clouds/rain, with
warm conditions out west. Temperatures will be back up to what we
have been seeing lately, upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Isolated TSRA is most likely to impact KCGI this afternoon, but
the chance even there is too low to mention at this time. The
storms will be outflow dominated, so an outflow boundary could
kick winds up at any site this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be
light and variable through tonight. Fog will be a concern again
tonight. Basically played a repeat of last night, only mentioning
MVFR fog at KCGI. If a site gets wet later this afternoon, fog
would be more likely there. Mid and high clouds will spread
northwest over the region Monday morning, and some isolated to
scattered convection could develop, mainly over west Kentucky by
late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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