Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The low clouds do not appear to be going anywhere, and even the
little bit of clearing in southwest Indiana is likely to disappear
through the afternoon. If there is some clearing it will be along
the southeast or southwest periphery of the region. Given the lack
of sunshine expected knocked high temperatures down about 5
degrees in most locations.

At first glance the 12Z models support keeping the entire area dry
through 00Z.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

High pressure moving east out of the upper OH Valley region will
bring a dry day to the region to end the weekend. Biggest question
today looks to be whether the stratus clouds draped across the
region will be able to mix out and give the some areas enough
sunshine to help temps reach well into the 50s despite a north
to east sfc wind.

Main show in the short term will come as a mid level low pressure
and associated surface front move east across the region Monday.
the Surface warm front ahead of the low still looks as though it
will stay down across cntrl TN, with the h850 low stretching
from near PAH to BWG KY Monday afternoon. Higher severe storm
risk should stay along/south of the surface front, but a few
stronger storms may work their way north of the sfc boundary across
southern KY and the Bootheel of MO on Monday. Overall, QPF looking
to stay less than an inch in most locations, so should not be enough
to affect major river levels at this time.

Another H50 low will cross the region Tuesday, but with little
low level forcing and overall moisture, so will keep pops and QPF
pretty minimal for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

By 12Z Wednesday, our early week system will be east of the area
but it will take most of the day for high pressure to slowly
filter in. Therefore, gusty northwesterly winds will be with us to
start out the day and there could be some lingering cloudiness in
the east, but clouds will shift east and winds will decrease with
time. Highs will remain similar to Tuesday, and range from the
mid to upper 40s north to lower 50s south.

On 12Z Thursday, weak surface high pressure will be situated over
the area. However, this high will shift east throughout the day.
There are still substantial differences between the available model
guidance on the approach of our next weather system. The latest GFS
continues to be quicker in spreading precipitation across the area
Thursday night as a low pressure system leaps eastward into eastern
KS. The GFS ensemble means as well as the ECMWF and Canadian do not
indicate this quick progression and keep the advancing warm front to
our south. If the GFS is correct, some of the precipitation could
end up being a mix wintry mix Thursday night due to the temperature
profiles. But, where the colder temperatures lie is not where the
better POPs are right now anyway so hopefully it will end up not
being a big deal.

These speed differences carry through for the rest of the forecast
period with this system as the upper level flow pattern is not being
depicted similarly between models. Therefore, confidence is not high
on any given period right now. Will attempt to keep POPs rather low
for now given the timing uncertainties. However, it does appear as
though Friday night into Saturday may be our best rain chances right
now given the newest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means.&&


Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

MVFR ceilings are the rule across the region. The clearing line is
just northeast of KEVV, and with a bit better mixing there they
may climb into VFR territory whether they scatter out or not. KOWB
is not far away, but less likely to make it to VFR. Elsewhere,
guidance indicates that VFR ceilings will make it to KPAH this
evening, but that may be optimistic.

A band of showers/rain will bring MVFR visibilities to KCGI and
KPAH as it lifts slowly northward overnight. It is not expected to
reach KOWB or KEVV. There should be a break after sunrise there,
but a more significant area of showers and possibly thunderstorms
will approach KCGI and KPAH in the last hour or two of the
forecast period.




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