Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180445
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Primary concerns in the short-term period are strong gusty winds
on Wednesday, then frost/freeze potential on Thursday night.

A robust system at the surface and aloft will track eastward
across central Illinois on Wednesday. Ahead of this system, deep
southwest flow will strengthen tonight. A cold front trailing
southwest from the low will cross our region on Wednesday
afternoon. Moisture will be very limited, so a dry frontal
passage is still anticipated for most places. The 12z gfs/nam and
09z sref indicate the front will generate some light qpf as it
intercepts somewhat deeper moisture late in the day. Aside from a
small chance of showers in southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile
region of west KY, the forecast will stay dry.

The potentially greater concern is gusty winds on Wednesday. There
is still a fairly big difference between the models concerning
cloudcover and its impact on mixing. The nam generates
considerably more cloudiness, which results in cooler temps and
less mixing. The 12z gfs is sunnier and warmer, with excellent
mixing that produces surface gusts over advisory criteria (40
mph). The forecast will take a blend of the two, which means highs
will be in the lower to mid 70s. Forecast gusts will be mainly 30
to 40 mph, which could be conservative if the gfs verifies.

Following the frontal passage, northwest winds will bring much
cooler air for Wednesday night and Thursday. Highs Thursday will
be in the 50s, even with a good deal of April sunshine.

Another strong surface high will move into the central conus on
Thursday night. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s. Unlike the
previous high pressure system, the center of the high or surface
ridge will be well to our north. Therefore, there is some
possibility of a strong enough gradient to inhibit frost
formation. Mos guidance generally indicates light winds, which
seems the most likely scenario. Frost will continue to be
mentioned in the hwo.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast starts off
higher than average with good model agreement through the first half
of the weekend. Confidence decreases at the start of next week with
lingering questions regarding the track of the next system.

Starting at 12Z Friday, forecast models show an elongated ridge of
high pressure stretching across the middle of the nation with low
pressure centers over the Northeast and Southwest. The ridge of high
pressure will slowly works its way across the area on Friday and
then to our east by Saturday. For our region, this will result in a
continued dry pattern through at least the first half of the weekend.

The western closed low is progged to work its way east into the
southern Plains on Saturday. This will likely result in an increase
in high and mid clouds, but any precipitation potential should hold
off until late Saturday night or Sunday at the earliest. While the
track and timing of the low still has a fair amount of wiggle room,
the trend has been further south with time. In fact, the latest 12Z
models either keep the immediate region completely dry or suppress
any rain chance into the far southernmost counties of Missouri and
Kentucky. As a result, the forecast is now dry over the northern
half of the area through the extended, with only a small chance over
the southern half focused primarily on Sunday. Any thunder potential
should remain well south of our forecast area in closer proximity to
the track of the low.

Other than Friday, temperatures through the bulk of the long term
are forecast near seasonable values. Highs should generally range
through the 60s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Southwest winds aloft will strengthen over the next 24 hours as a
strong cold front approaches our region. Surface winds will gust
to near 30 kts on Wednesday. Low level wind shear could be an
issue early this morning before the surface winds really kick in.
Low level moisture ahead of the front will increase Wednesday
morning and afternoon, but vfr cigs are expected at this time.
However, there are some signs there might be a window of
opportunity where MVFR cigs could occur btwn 12-18Z. Winds will
taper off some after 00Z and become northwesterly as the front
moves through, but probably will not calm down too much until
around 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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