Text Products for ESF Issued by PHI

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FGUS71 KPHI 291738
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-010545-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 5

This is the fifth in a series of annual Flood Potential
Statements that provides an assessment of how ready or primed our
forecast area is for river flooding.

This outlook covers the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill,
Passaic and Raritan River basins.

It will provide information on flood threat contributors such as
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water
equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation
and others.

This assessment is valid between February 29 - March 14, 2024.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook does not discuss flash flooding, nor does it discuss
any extent or severity of flooding.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None. There is currently no river flooding
occurring within our service area.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Below normal. Between 1.0 and 2.0 inches
of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across the
entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - There is very little snow, if any, north of the I-80
corridor. Any remaining snow water equivalents (SWE) are running
between 0.10 inch and 0.20 inches. Depth and basin-average water
equivalent estimates can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under
the Seasonal Interest tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the
National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - We have no reports of river ice across our area of
responsibility at this time.

STREAMFLOW - Normal to slightly above normal. Real time water
data is available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
by visiting https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal to above normal. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region vary and are running below normal
to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are mainly running normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - Surface high pressure builds over the
region today and will influence the region through Friday. Weak
low pressure brings precipitation to the region Friday night
through Saturday night. Weak high pressure may return for Sunday
and Monday, but the pattern becomes fairly uncertain, stagnant,
and potentially unsettled Sunday into midweek. The 8 to 14 day
outlook calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall river flood potential is normal across the forecast
area.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

&&

Overall Flood Potential...Normal
Current Flooding...None
Recent Precipitation...Below normal
Snow cover...Below normal north, normal south
River Ice...Below normal north, normal south
Streamflow...Normal to slightly above normal
Soil Moisture...Normal to above normal
Ground Water...Below normal to above normal
Reservoir Conditions...Normal

$$

Kruzdlo
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
