Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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119 FXUS65 KPUB 031748 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1148 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Plains today with one or two strong to severe storms possible, generally north and east of a line from La Junta to Kim. - Critical Fire Weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley today. - Strong and gusty winds for much of the area Sunday and Monday. - Critical fire weather conditions will likely return to portions of the area starting Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the Rockies, with another short wave trough translating through the faster flow across the Intermountain West at this time. Regional radars and satellite imagery indicating mid and high level clouds streaming across the Rockies, with a few waa showers lifting out across the eastern I-70 Corridor into northern portions of Kiowa County at this time. Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft through the day today, as the embedded wave across the Intermountain West continues into the Northern Rockies. This will lead to lee troughing developing and deepening across the southeast Plains through the afternoon, with breezy south to Southeast low level winds advecting low level moisture into southeast Colorado, with dew pts in the mid 40s to lower 50s supporting CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, generally north and east of a La Junta to Kim line. Bulk shears of 30-40kts will be present across the southeast Plains this afternoon, and with steep lapse rates and convergence along the expected advancing dry line, could see one or two strong to severe storms producing strong outflow winds up to 60 mph and half dollar sized hail across the southeast Plains this afternoon. Latest HREF paintball data indicates a few helicity swaths developing from 2 pm to 8 pm across the plains, with storms possibly congealing into a large convective cluster associated with the passing waves cold front pushing south across eastern Colorado through the evening. West of the dryline, breezy west to southwest winds can be expected this afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions expected across the San Luis Valley into portions of the Southern I-25 Corridor, with current fuel status supporting the Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley from 11 AM to 8 PM. Passing cold front brings gusty northerly winds of 25 to 45 mph across the plains this evening, with a low chance of of an isolated shower across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa into the late evening. Clearing skies through the overnight hours could also bring some patchy frost to areas along the Palmer Dvd early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday...The area will be under weaker flow aloft as another Pacific low system pushes onshore across northern CA. The frontal passage Friday evening will swing surface winds around to an easterly direction Sat morning, pushing remnant moisture back towards the higher terrain. This will fuel afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with more activity expected across the mts and immediate adjacent plains, and SPC has the entire forecast area under a General Thunder area. Plan on high temps in the 60s for most locations. Sunday and Monday...Ensembles still indicate that the most likely track of this next system will be across the Great Basin on Sunday, then ejecting to the northeast across northern UT, WY and MT Sunday night through Monday. The system strengthens considerably, and reaches eastern MT by early Tue morning. This track is expected to produce strong southerly winds across the forecast area on Sunday, then strong west winds on Monday. Sunday looks like it will be the warmest day of the extended period with the strong southerly flow, and humidity levels are forecast to remain elevated enough that a fire weather highlight should not be needed. However, on Monday the strong westerly flow should force humidity levels downward, and critical fire weather conditions will make a return. As for precipitation chances, Sunday starts with some lingering isolated showers near the Kansas border, but by the afternoon activity kicks up across the higher terrain, with the best chances along the Continental Divide where 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the peaks will be possible. By Monday, with the westerly flow, the best chances for any shower activity will be the central mts, spreading to the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide. Look for highs on Sun in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. On Mon, temps will only climb into the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper low will slowly cross ND on Tue, pushing into MN late Wed. Strong westerly flow is expected to continue across the forecast area both days, with isolated showers mainly restricted to the central mts. Fire weather highlight are anticipated for portions of the area both days, as temps warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to near 80F for the plains. Thursday...A shortwave rotating around the northern low will push a cold front south into CO Wed evening, setting the stage for cooler temps for the forecast area as well as isolated to scattered convection chances returning to the eastern plains. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. There will be some lower decks moving in later which will reduce CIGs to MVFR criteria during the morning hours from approximately 11 to 13Z. CIGs will should remain elevated enough to be above MVFR criteria for KPUB from 13 to 15Z. FROPA will occur for KCOS around 01Z and KPUB around 02Z, which will result in a windshift with gusty NE`ly winds thereafter, with gusts close to 40 kts at both terminals. Winds will be synoptically influenced at all terminals. There is very low confidence (less than 10 percent) of SHRA or possibly TSRA to be in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB right around the time of FROPA, although due to the lack of confidence, this was left out of the TAF. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...STEWARD