Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 252125
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
525 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings very dry conditions through tonight, leading
to an enhanced fire weather risk across the region through this
evening. The next system brings rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of our southeast Ohio
counties after coordination with neighboring WFOs and Wayne
National Forest. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 153 PM Monday...

A large surface low pressure system moves from the plains, northeast
into the Great Lakes early Tuesday morning. Its proximity will
tighten up the pressure gradient locally to produce strong southerly
gusty winds tonight into Tuesday. Deep southerly flow will bring
moisture and WAA to the area, spreading periods of rain as the
atmosphere saturates from top to bottom overnight. Better chances
for showers arrive the the Middle Ohio valley by 7 AM Tuesday,
spreading east to affect the rest of WV into Tuesday night. Limited
instability will prevent thunderstorms to become widespread. Chances
for thunderstorms are low attm. SPC has the area under general
thunderstorms.

Surface southeast winds will prevail through tonight. Strong
southerly winds aloft (H850) this evening will increase from 20 to
50 knots by midnight. Momentum transfer from local soundings suggest
gusts of 20 to 30 knots could mix down the surface under southeast
downslope during the overnight hours. Gusts up to 50 knots are
likely along the higher terrain. Therefore, a wind advisory
remains in effect for the central and northern mountains,
including portions of southeast WV through 1 PM Tuesday.

Mild temperatures under increasing southerly flow expected tonight,
generally in the mid to upper 40s lowlands, ranging into the
mid 30s northeast mountains. For highs on Tuesday, temperatures
will generally be around 60 degrees lowlands, ranging into the
mid 40s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

The region will be in the warm sector under continued southeasterly
downslope Tuesday night. Would not expect too much additional
precipitation during the overnight hours with very dry air noted
just off the surface, especially in those areas with enhanced
downslope. The surface cold front approaches Wednesday morning, but
given a rather dry column preceding it, will be difficult to coax
out more than a few hundreths of additional accumulation during
the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

Cooler and generally drier weather then takes hold for the remainder
of the work week under northwesterly flow for the lower elevations.
Could see some of the periphery of moisture associated with a
southern stream system running up the coast producing some very
light rain and perhaps a couple snowflakes in the mountains during
the day Thursday, but accumulations are not expected to amount to
more than a couple hundreths of an inch.

A weak shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow moves through the
region Friday with some cooler air moving over the warming
Great Lakes. This could yield some light upslope snow in the
mountains Friday morning with little, if any accumulation.

As we head into the weekend a pipeline of Gulf enhanced moisture
sets up across the Deep South into the TN Valley with a parade of
northern stream disturbances lined up and some coupling of southern
stream energy possible.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 152 PM Monday...

High pressure to our east continues to provide widespread VFR
conditions through tonight. Winds will increase this afternoon
and evening as the pressure gradient tightens up while a low
pressure system approaches from the west. The low will move from
the plains, northeast into the Great Lakes region, while a warm
front/cold front system will spread rain showers across the
area starting Tuesday morning.

Surface wind gusts will reach around 20 kts by late afternoon,
and then up to around 25 kts tonight. Peak wind gusts across
could reach 35 to 47 knots along and nearby the central
mountains tonight. A wind advisory is in effect for portions of
the central mountains and southeast WV until Tuesday afternoon.
Therefore, expect the strongest winds at BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset of gusty winds this
afternoon or evening is uncertain. Gusty winds will fluctuate,
which could allow for LLWS to develop during lulls. LLWS
tonight could develop even with some gusts mixing to the
surface.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions may occur in any areas of rain late Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 500 PM Monday...

Mixing this afternoon has resulted in rather low surface dew
points across the region given a significant dry layer aloft.
Meanwhile, afternoon temperatures have warmed to near, or above,
70 degrees, resulting in low RH values of generally 10-20
percent across the region. Additionally, southeast wind gusts
of 15-30 MPH have been observed across the region (locally
higher gusts in spots), resulting in an enhanced risk for
wildfire spread through this evening. Given such, a Red Flag
Warning has been issued until 9 PM for all of our southeast
Ohio zones after coordination with Wayne National Forest, with a
Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger out until 9
PM for the rest of our CWA (Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia).

Relative humidity values will begin to slowly recover later
this evening and through tonight, with values of 40-70 percent
by dawn on Tuesday. Breezy to gusty southeast winds will
continue tonight, especially in/near the higher terrain with
downslope flow. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH are possible across the
lowlands overnight, with 30-50 MPH gusts possible in/near the
higher terrain.

A wetting rain is expected area-wide on Tuesday. Rain progresses
west to east across the region throughout the day amid continued
breezy to gusty southeast flow. Wind gusts of 15-25 MPH are
possible area-wide, with higher gusts in/near the mountains.
Relative humidity values Tuesday afternoon bottom out in the
30-55 percent range in/near the mountains, with higher values
further west.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for WVZ015-025>027-034-
     039-515>523-525-526.
OH...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ
FIRE WEATHER...GW


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