Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1221 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

In a bit of a lull right now with morning convection having
stabilized conditions. Convection is firing along a distinct
outflow boundary over northeast AR. The boundary becomes less
distinct has farther to west into NW AR. Another shortwave that
extends form south central KS into central OK will shift northeast
with lift increasing over the area, especially the western cwfa
late this afternoon and this early this evening. MLCAPE values off
the HRRR reach 1000-1500 j/kg with around 30kts 0-6km bulk shear
which would support multicell or possibly supercells with a large
hail and damaging wind risk for a few hours before the wave lifts
off to the northeast. Questions still consist of how long
convection will linger into the eastern counties overnight. Have
raised rain chances using a blend of cams/short term guidance.

In general, Monday looks more quiet with weak mid level height

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Mid level shortwave ridging and height rises are expected through
midweek as an upstream closed upper low moves into the western
CONUS. Can`t rule out some diurnally driven isolated pulse
convection through midweek, but coverage looks limited. The
western upper trough opens up and lifts well northwest of the
area. Late in the week a blocking upper level pattern develops
with a slow moving upper low moving north out of the Gulf of
Mexico and another moving east from the western CONUS. Chaotic
upper level flow doesn`t generate much confidence in the forecast.
May see an uptick in diurnal convection late in the period, but
no major systems are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Conditions will lower overnight with ceilings and visibilities
dropping into IFR towards sunrise. Winds will remain light and
variable. Dense fog to one quarter mile is possible at JLN and
SGF. Ceilings will improve with morning sunshine. VFR conditions
are then expected at the sites for the rest of Monday.




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