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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230825 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
325 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower and a few storms will occur this afternoon/
  evening. Highest precipitation chances (50-70%) in central
  Missouri, decreasing to the southwest.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday and continue through
  the weekend. There is potential for strong to severe storms
  Friday into the weekend, but confidence in details are still
  low.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

High pressure has drifted southeast and weakened its grip on the
greater Ozarks region, allowing southerly winds to calm under the
clear skies. An area of surface low pressure is currently located
over southern Manitoba, making its way into the Great Lakes
region and sending a cold front south through Iowa and into
eastern Nebraska. An upper-level low is collocated with the
surface low, and a low-level jet over the Plains is weakening as
it converges along the axis of low-level frontogenesis in Iowa
and eastern Nebraska.

Today through Thursday:

As this disturbance moves further southeast into the Great Lakes,
the cold front will shift south into Missouri ahead of the upper-
level trough. Along this front, rain showers will develop Tuesday
afternoon, though how far into southwest Missouri these showers will
make it is still unclear. The deepest/strongest portion of the front
will remain to the northeast, so confidence in rain is higher the
further you get into central Missouri. Recent models have been
trending further and further southwest with precipitation, but
coverage has remained spotty even with showers making it further
southwest. PoPs northeast of Springfield along the I-44 corridor are
in the 50-70% range, capping out at 20-45% for the rest of the
forecast area, especially further south and west. No severe weather
is expected with this system, with lighting chances remaining
low in the 5-20% range. Accumulation, if any, would be below a
tenth of an inch with these showers.

The cold front, despite bringing precip chances up, will be fairly
weak in nature. Temperatures on Tuesday will reach highs of low 70s
in central Missouri and mid-70s around the further southwest
portions of Missouri and far southeast Kansas. Lows in the wake of
the frontal passage will be in the mid-40s to around 50 into
Wednesday morning. Temperatures look similar for Wednesday, with
highs in the low 70s and overnight temperatures dropping into the
mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

First things first: on the temperature front (no pun intended),
after Tuesday`s frontal passage, things will warm up once
again. Friday will range from low to mid-70s, possibly breaching
into the 80s on Saturday, before a likely return to upper 70s
on Sunday and Monday.

The boundary formerly known as the cold front from Tuesday will
petter out and become stationary over Arkansas on Wednesday, surging
back northward as a warm front on Thursday with the help of another
developing low-level jet in the central Plains. Scattered showers
and a few rumbles of thunder could develop early Thursday morning,
with storms becoming more widespread through the day Thursday.
Chances of thunder increase as the day continues, but the corridor
of strongest instability appears to stay to our west until Thursday
night into Friday. Ensembles show >50% chances of CAPE of 1000 J/kg
or greater near the Kansas/Missouri border by 15Z on Friday (the NAM
gives a bullish 1800 J/kg, but I`m not buying that) which indicates
that the deep convection will likely hinge on the timing, placement,
and extent of the low-level jet by Friday morning.

One thing to starting look out for with the Thursday/Thursday night
portion of this system is heavy rain and minor flood potential-
PWATs above 1" are nearly guaranteed beginning on Thursday morning
according to ensemble probabilities, with some indicating potential
for PWATs of 1.25-1.5". Despite the storms on Thursday seeming sub-
severe at this point, if they train or can sustain deep convection,
they could drop a couple of inches of rain. As of right now, the
heaviest rain appears to stay along and west of the northwest
Arkansas/northeast Oklahoma border, but if the trough of this system
doesn`t deepen quite that far south, far southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas could end up within a bullseye of precipitation and
get a couple of inches of rain.

Rain will likely linger through the morning on Friday, but the
strongest weather will more than likely be associated with a low-
level jet of 50kts+ moving east from the Plains into Missouri. With
such strong winds aloft (spoiler, they only strengthen with height
along the leeward side of the trough) and indications of bulk shear
in excess of 50kts Friday afternoon and evening, all severe threats
appear to be on the table. The location of that low-level jet will
again determine the extent of the impacts for our area- right now,
areas near the Kansas/Missouri border appear to be the most likely
to receive severe impacts, but CAMs are just out of range, so more
certainty with the evolution of this system is likely to come over
the next few forecast packages.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday are their own beast to forecast- the
synoptic features responsible for storms in the Plains on Thursday
and Friday could essentially stall there, bringing us another day of
severe weather and/or heavy rain, or it could remain south and west
of the Missouri Ozarks. Predictability is frustratingly low once
models reach the weekend, between location, strength, and timing of
features aloft, richest moisture, and instability. Nevertheless, one
thing that can be conclusively said about the forecast beyond
Wednesday is that the pattern will become much more active.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Overnight, the primary condition to watch will be low-level wind
shear, which is from the SW with a magnitude of 40-45kts as a
low-level jet begins ramping up into the Plains. As the wind
shear dies down, southwesterly winds will get gusty again in
the late morning as a low pressure system sends a front down
into our region, gusting as high as 20-30kts. As the front
approaches, cloud cover will increase, starting with high clouds
giving way to some mid- and low-level clouds. These conditions
are expected to remain VFR, even with some precipitation in
central MO. Prob30 is in place for SGF for some showers, but the
bulk of the precipitation looks to remain further NE from all
three TAF sites. After frontal passage late afternoon, winds
will shift more northerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 26:
KSGF: 66/2016

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896


Record Precipitation:

April 28:
KSGF: 2.19/1996


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden