Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Several clusters of convection were ongoing from central Missouri
back to the southwest into southern Kansas and central Oklahoma.
The largest area of convection was centered in Oklahoma within a
better instability axis and stronger llj. MU capes in our area
were generally around 1000-1500j/kg with the highest values in far
southern missouri where that area has been missed from the bulk of
the precip. Surface low pressure was over Central Kansas with a
trailing boundary into Oklahoma as well as extending up into
northwest Missouri.

Expect convection to continue to develop and move into and through
the area this morning. Just enough instability and shear exists
for a marginal severe threat with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats this morning. PW values are around 1.2-1.5in and
we have seen heavy precip rates therefore some flash flooding is
possible with any training storms, especially across locations
that have already seen heavy rainfall from the last 24 hours.

High res guidance indicates that the bulk of this precip will move
through the morning with a potential lull around mid day. By the
afternoon and evening, more shortwave energy will move into the
region and interact with the remaining front over our area. Our
atmosphere may be pretty worked over by then, however if the
atmosphere can destabilize, then storms that develop could become
severe. RAP forecasts for late afternoon into the evening show
about 2000j/kg of ML cape with 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Mid
level lapse rates dont look to be nearly as impressive as
yesterday therefore not currently expecting quite the episode we
experienced yesterday however some damaging winds and large hail
would be possible during the afternoon and evening hours across
the entire area if this instability materializes. With high PW
values forecast, locally heavy rainfall and flooding could also
occur. Precip will end from west to east during the early
overnight hours. Lastly, high temperatures today will vary quite a
bit and be dependent on the amount of cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Monday and Tuesday both look primarily dry other than a scattered
storm or two across far southern missouri. Height rises are
occuring both days and not seeing a strong trigger for storms at
this point. Temperatures will remain very warm.

Several shortwaves embedded in the flow approach by midweek with
rainfall chances lingering into the end of the week. Temps will
remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance will move
northeast from OK with scattered thunderstorms developing or
moving ito the area late this afternoon (toward 22z). Have tempo
groups for the most likely time frame. Guidance shows chances for
lower ceilings (IFR or low end MVFR ceilings) for a few hours
toward 12z. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be light.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield


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