Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 00Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Weak frontal boundary currently situated from west-central to
southeast MO with a very moist air mass in place. Upper level
trough over OK/TX had set off showers and thunderstorms over AR
late this morning which have now spread into MO.

Given the shear and instability profiles...would expect more pulse
type thunderstorms with marginal severe hail and winds possible.
However...given the weak steering winds aloft and the above normal
PWATs for this time of year...will need to monitor storms this
evening for slow movement and possible heavy rainfall.

Surface front continues to meander across the area on Thursday
before washing out by Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

As an upper level wave moves across Southern Canada Thursday into
Friday...it will tend to flatten the ridge and allow it to
retrograde westward. This will put the area into more of a northwest
flow pattern and in fact the models are hinting at an MCS
developing over eastern NE and moving into the area early on
Friday morning.

Temperatures through the period should range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s overnight to mid 80s to lower 90s for daytime highs.
With the muggy air mass over the region...heat index
values...especially along the I-49 corridor could reach into the
mid 90s over the holiday weekend.

The next system to watch for will be a tropical low moving
northward into the Gulf of Mexico...which could affect the area
late in the period if it decides to take a more westward turn.
For now...will keep daily chances of diurnal storms in until the
movement of this system becomes more apparent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Scattered showers and storms developed this afternoon. A few
showers may affect the TAF sites early this even but then dry
conditions are expected this evening and tonight.

Light fog may be possible early Thursday morning then isolated to
scattered storms are expected to develop across the region again
Thursday morning/afternoon. Coverage in the convection on Thursday
should be less than the activity that occurred today was though.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Wise


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