709
FXUS63 KSGF 270545
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue into this evening with the
  better potential for severe storms occuring over southeast
  Kansas to along the western Missouri border.

- After a break Saturday, periodic thunderstorm chances resume
  Saturday evening into Monday. A Flood Watch has been issued
  for Saturday night into Monday as anticipated heavy rain falls
  on regions that recently received excessive rains.

- The unsetteled pattern continues with additional storm chances
  mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Atmosphere to remain unsettled through much of the short term as a
negatively tilted upper low moves into Iowa and associated
diffluence aloft aids upper vertical motion.

Despite cloud debris from an MCS that formed over Oklahoma and
spread across the forecast area today...elevated convection
continues to form upstream of the Ozarks under the cloud cover.
18z KSGF RAOB depicting significant CIN with model soundings
depicting even less instability farther east...thus severe
threat to be limited Highway 65 east.

Farther west...sunshine will support destabilizaton over southeast
Kansas with storms forming southeast of ICT suggestive of the
beginnings of the next round of storms. Leaned on the ML CAPE
from the HREF and HRRR to however anticipate that any storms
that may form to have a tough time propagating much into western
Missouri this evening. Before then however hail to the size of
tennis balls and damaging winds will be the primary threat for
the storms that reach far southeast Kansas. The tornado threat
will be somewhat reduced by veering surface winds and
diminishing instability but the threat will need to be
monitored.

Rain chances will diminish this evening with minimal support for
much of the day Saturday before diffluence induced uplift increases
once again as the next waves moves across the Plains Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Precipital water that had increased to around 1.3 Thursday
before dropping to 0.8 inches on the 18z SGF RAOB, will once
again surge northward to over 1.75 ahead of the next wave
compliments of a 50 knot north orientated low level jet Saturday
night. The resultant rainfall coupled with it falling on
grounds already impacted by recent excessive rains raises an
elevated to significant flood threat into Sunday.

The next western wave will be more progressive as it tracks
eastward along the Canadian border on Tuesday. Questions exists
on how far south its influence will extend though moisture
convergence along an attendant cold front will be enough to
offer a limited potential for additional thunderstorms as it
slowly sags southward late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SCT to BKN low clouds are filtering in and out of all TAF sites
at the moment, bringing in brief periods of MVFR ceilings. These
clouds should increase in coverage through 15Z before gradually
burning off by 18Z. Winds will remain gusty out of the S with
sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts. A low-
level jet is also presenting 45 kts of low-level wind shear,
which should subside by 13-14Z.

Isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm development is
possible (20-40% chance) at all TAF sites during the mid- to
late afternoon hours (21-02Z). These will be most prevalent
during peak heating before dissipating after sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
     MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Price