402
FXUS63 KSGF 022336
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand over the
  area this afternoon and shift east across the forecast area
  into this evening.

- The stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
  quarters and up to 60 mph winds...with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day
  forecast with the next round of showers and thunderstorms late
  Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system
located along the Montana / Saskatchewan border with an
associated trough axis becoming negatively tilted over the
northern plains. Broad southwesterly flow aloft was occurring on
the southern side of this trough from the southwest U.S. into
the CWA. A mesoscale convective vort(MCV) was lifting northeast
into the CWA out of northeast Oklahoma, while a surface front
was located over eastern Kansas shifting eastward. Surface based
CAPE values have risen into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and with
the front and MCV moving into the area, convection over the past
hour has increased in intensity and coverage, generally west of
U.S. 65.

This afternoon and tonight: Thunderstorm coverage will continue
to increase ahead of the surface front. The front will be slow
to push eastward through the area with the front nearly parallel
with the upper level flow. The MCV will continue to lift
northeast into the southwest corner of Missouri as well.
Thunderstorm coverage will gradually shift east across the area
through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours.
Some of the stronger storms will have the potential of some
small hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph in
addition to heavy rainfall. We are seeing some rotation in the
storms in the southwest corner of MO with the circulation around
the MCV and have had a confirmed small tornado already reported.
So we can`t rule out an isolated small tornado or two. Some
localized rainfall totals of an inch to inch and a half will be
possible in regions where multiple storms move across the same
locations, otherwise we are looking at a broad area of a quarter
to half inch of rain. The rain should end from west to east
later tonight with the front pushing to the east of the area.

Friday: This looks like the pick day of the 7 day forecast if
you are looking for generally dry conditions. Outside of a
lingering shower in the morning, it should generally be dry with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday night - Saturday: An upper level wave will track
northeast out of the northern plains and into the upper
Mississippi valley on Friday night. A surface front will begin
to track east into the western portion of the CWA and we should
see showers and thunderstorms start to push into the area.
Rainfall will become more widespread over the area during the
day on Saturday.


Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow
aloft will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to
the area on Sunday. The better instability looks to be south of
the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this
activity at this time.

Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will
begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift
negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will
have better dynamics and instability for the potential of some
severe storms which the Colorado State, CIPS and SPC are already
supporting in their day 5-6 outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An area of showers and a few storms will continue to move
through the area early this evening. A few isolated storms will
remain possible tonight but coverage will be limited. Ceilings
will lower this evening into tonight with IFR conditions
expected. Some fog will be possible tonight into early Friday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise