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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220757
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-60% rain chances Tuesday with highest and more widespread
  chances along the cold front in the eastern Ozarks, decreasing
  to the west.

- 30-80% chances of rain beginning early Thursday morning and
  persisting at times into the weekend. There will be the
  potential for some strong to severe storms on Friday and
  Friday night but confidence in details is still low.

- Slow warming trend back to near normal early in the week
  becoming above normal into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Clear skies and calm winds paired with expected low
temperatures between 30 and 36 degrees brings frost to the
forefront of tonight`s forecast. The coldest temperatures are
expected in the eastern Ozarks, thus the Frost Advisory in
effect until 8:00AM local time for areas east of I-49, but the
entire region could be susceptible to frost if observed
temperatures trends continue.

The surface high that is currently dominating the regional synoptic
pattern will slip further to the southeast, reinforcing the south-
southwest flow that has begun to infiltrate into the Ozarks. This
southerly flow regime will usher in warm air, bringing high
temperatures into the upper 60s and even low 70s during the day
Monday. As a low pressure system digs into the Great Lakes through
the day, the pressure gradient will tighten and winds will
strengthen, with sustained speeds between 10-20mph and gusts up to
15-30mph. Winds will increase from east to west, with the strongest
winds near the KS/MO border.

The 00Z sounding here at SGF shows a dry air mass firmly in place,
and model soundings indicate that it`ll stick around through the day
on Monday. With those warm temperatures, clear skies, heightened
winds, and minimum RHs of 20-30%, elevated to locally significant
fire weather is in play for Monday. The lowest afternoon RH values
and thus the highest fire danger will be east of Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Disturbance 1/Tuesday:

As the low digs further into the Great Lakes on Tuesday, a cold
front will push south into Missouri from northeast to southwest. How
far southwest the strongest precipitation along the front will make
it is still up for debate as the CAMs begin to get into range, with
certainty in precipitation and coverage increasing to the northeast
along the more robust portion of the front. However, many HREF members
indicate the potential for scattered rain showers from central MO
into eastern KS/northeast OK. No severe weather is expected with
this system during the day on Tuesday. Areas of Missouri north and
west of I-44 will have PoPs of 40-60%, with Kansas and areas along
and south of I-44 having around 20-40% chance of rain. Rain should
taper off overnight and into Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday in the mid-
to upper 70s.

Disturbance 2, Part 1:

Early Thursday morning brings the next event of the week, which will
feed off the moisture hitching a ride off a developing low-level jet
in the Plains. Thursday should remain primarily rain, but the
chances of thunder will increase through the day as the instability
builds along the axis of the low-level jet in the Plains. Much of
this rain will develop ahead of a warm front associated with an
upper-level trough pushing off the Rockies into the central Plains.
PoPs are currently 30-80%, with the highest chances furthest west.
It seems right now like there could be a break in the rain Thursday
evening before the next portion of the event unfolds. Wednesday and
Thursday will see temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Disturbance 2, Part 2:

Thursday night into Friday morning will see the warm front move to
the north over the area, bringing rain and maybe a few thunderstorms
to start the day out. The KS/MO border remains on the fringes of a
45-55kt low-level jet, continuing to act as a source of both moisture
and dynamic support. Instability will build through the day, and some
strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible with this round during
the day and evening hours on Friday. ML analogs and SPC outlooks also
indicate the potential for severe storms Friday, so remain vigilant
when making plans as the week unfolds. With southerly flow firmly
in place by Friday, temperatures will warm to the upper 70s, maybe
even breaching the 80 degree mark.

Disturbance 2, Part 3:

With such an active pattern unfolding, the predictability for next
week is pretty low, but analogs indicate severe weather potential
lingering into the weekend. Cluster analysis and ensemble comparison
suggests that the amplitude of the trough associated with this
disturbance will dictate the intensity and extent of any
lingering convection behind the first round of storms on Friday.
Ensembles are pretty split at this point, so there`s a signal
to begin keeping an eye on for Saturday and Sunday, but nothing
conclusive can be said beyond that with this much lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Southerly winds will be light to nonexistent into Monday
morning, increasing to 10-15kts as the sun comes up with gusts
up to 25kts developing into the afternoon. JLN will be the
gustiest with the overhead LLJ development through the day
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Record Low Temperatures:

April 22:
KSGF: 29/2021


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 26:
KSGF: 66/2016

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden