Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251936
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
236 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

SGF 88D detecting intensifying thunderstorms over south central
Missouri along the tail end of last nights convection aided by
weak shortwave energy moving off to the southeast. Have been
monitoring MVC over far SE Kansas this morning but structure is
faltering...thus amount of thunderstorm development farther west
in question as SPC mesoanalysis continues to marginal ML CAPES
along with weak CIN over the rest of the forecast area.

May see isolated diurnal storms on Saturday as warm advection
kicks off though widespread rain is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Models have been consistent in building heights with temperatures
approaching record levels (see climate section below) as the
southwest to northeast orientated upper ridge is sandwiched in
between an upper low over the Great Basin and an early season
tropical system moving into the Gulf coast.

The western upper low will kick out into the northern plains
by midweek breaking down the ridge and bringing back a slim chance
of thunderstorms. Otherwise the heat will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Airmass has stabilized behind early morning convection...though
isolated thunderstorm potential remains later this afternoon into
the early evening.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Saturday May 26th Sunday May 27thMonday May 28th
Record/Year Record/Year Record/Year
Springfield     93/2012    91/2012    90/2012
Joplin    94/195392/2012 92/1983
Vichy-Rolla 98/2012 95/201292/2012
West Plains 95/201292/201294/2012

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Runnels
CLIMATE...Griffin


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