Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
112 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

A weak Tutt Low like feature is in the area this morning and
evidence in the GOES16 imagery kinda near Branson. There is plenty
of rich moisture in the atmosphere over the region with PW values
between 1.5 and 1.8 inches. The latest upper air sounding here at
SGF showed 1.6 inches with decent moisture from the surface to the
top. With that said, we really like how the NAM12, NAMnest, and
HRRR is handling the short term guidance this morning and later
today. The HRRR shows that weak isolated convection over north
central Arkansas slipping into south central Missouri through
sunrise before kinda fizzling out.

The NAMnest look like it is handling the late morning/midday
convection developing across southwest Missouri fairly well which
would make sense given the weak mid level low and swirl evident on
satellite imagery. That area will be focus for scattered
convection today. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated but
can`t rule out a rouge stronger storm with gusty winds and small
hail. The convection will be efficient rainfall producers with
localized heavy rainfall possible. Most of the convection will
dissipate around sunset but models hint that some isolated
convection could linger into the overnight across south central

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Models have been indicating a MCS feature may develop tonight
across Nebraska or Kansas and dive southeastward towards the
Ozarks region by Friday morning. While this MCS may be weakening
as it approaches our area Friday morning, it will lay out some
outflow boundaries for new convection to develop Friday afternoon
across the area. We should see a decent coverage of scattered
convection again Friday. Models show another MCS potentially
developing near the KC area and moving southeastward Friday night
into the mid Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. We may see a
marginal risk for some damaging wind gusts and hail with the
stronger storms.

A little bit of upper level ridging develops across the southern
Plains region on Saturday with a shear weakness remain towards our
eastern areas. This will be the best chance for scattered storms
to develop again Saturday with lesser chance west. The bubble of
upper level ridge builds over the region for Sunday and Monday
which means warmer temperatures and very isolated storm chances
for the Memorial Day holiday. Highs will be near 90 and humid. By
the middle of next week, we will keep an eye on the tropical low
moving inland from the Gulf Coast region. That low could throw
some tropical moisture back to our region but uncertainty remains
on the track of that system at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will occur in the
near term with a slow moving upper level disturbance. Outside of
the influence of thunderstorms, expected VFR conditions. Extensive
higher clouds may limit fog potential more than the past couple of




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.