Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171713
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Temperatures early this morning have dipped into the mid 30s
already where we currently have the frost advisory, with low to
mid 40s over the southwest portion of the CWA. Aloft we are in
northwest flow, however the eastward moving ridge axis was over
central KS. In the lower levels, high pressure was gradually
shifting east over the area with an east to southeast wind
beginning to develop at the surface in the western CWA and 30 kts
of southwest wind at 850 mph.

After a "frosty" start to the morning, especially in the eastern
CWA, a warm front should be just to the south of the area by 12z
this morning and will lift north through the area during the day,
so we should see a significant warmup today over the past few days
with highs returning to the 70s over all but the northeast CWA.
Southeast winds this morning will become breezy out of the south
behind the warm frontal passage for the afternoon.

A quick moving cold front will push east through the area late
tonight and will switch the winds to the northwest. Lows will
range from the upper 40s in the northwest CWA to the mid 50s in
the east, which won`t feel the effects of the front for the
morning lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

With the front to the east of us during the day Wednesday, gusty
northwest winds and dry conditions will lead to some potential
fire weather concerns during the afternoon as humidity levels
drop. Not in the realm of red flag conditions so far, so we are
not issuing any watches with this forecast, but something to keep
in mind for our future forecasts. Highs will be cooler than today
with highs from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south.

Will have to watch the frost potential again for both Wednesday
and Thursday nights with expectant lows in some locations dipping
into the mid 30s. Winds may be a bit strong for frost on Wednesday
night as the high will still be building in, but Thursday night in
the eastern CWA might have a better potential.

Temperatures should climb back into the 60s across the CWA for
Friday into Saturday with rising heights ahead of the next closed
low system which will move into the southern and central plains on
Saturday. We could see some showers moving into the western CWA
during the day Saturday, however the best chance for rain across
the area will be on Saturday night into Sunday night. The main low
is expected to track south of the area which will keep the best
instability further south. Have added some low chances of thunder
across far southern Missouri Saturday night into Sunday with some
weak instability, however no severe storms are expected. Most of
the precipitation should be southeast of the area by Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR will persist through Wednesday with some passing high clouds.

Brisk and gusty south winds this afternoon and this evening will
turn around to the west late tonight and Wednesday morning behind
a passing cold front.

Low level wind shear conditions can be expected overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



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