Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1136 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Main forecast challenges for this time frame is centered on Friday,
with both severe weather chances and afternoon fire weather concerns
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri.

Mid level ridging shifts eastward tonight as a rather vigorous
shortwave trough rotates out into central Kansas, while a surface
low deepens in the same general area. All short term models are
indicating showers developing tonight, perhaps as early as the
evening hours as both lift and instability increases. Will likely
see some isolated thunderstorms, especially after 06Z. rather breezy
southerly winds will keep temperatures rather mild, with lows only
in the middle 50s over southeast Kansas to the middle 40s over
portions of the eastern Ozarks.

On Friday, the surface low deepens as it translates into northeast
Kansas, with a warm front laying out along the Interstate 70
corridor. A rather strong pressure gradient develops across
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as a surface
trough/dryline pushes through the region with a narrow ribbon of
limited instability ahead of it. There remains a marginal risk for
severe weather across much of the area during the morning hours
into early afternoon and then shifting more into the eastern
Ozarks during the mid to late afternoon, with mainly damaging wind
gusts and hail being the main threats. By afternoon. drier air
gets advected into southeast Kansas and western Missouri and this
combined with windy conditions and temperatures in the 70s will
lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions for the
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Friday night the surface low translates across central Missouri
pushing any remaining precipitation to the east of the area. This
dry and somewhat cooler conditions will then prevail through the
day Saturday as a quick shot of mid level ridging builds across
the region through Saturday night.

Rather progressive flow brings another system towards the area
Sunday as troughing develops to the west and  mid and upper level
flow becomes more southwesterly. This will keep rain chances from
Sunday into Tuesday before somewhat quiet northwest flow develops on
its backside for Wednesday and Thursday. Although cannot totally rule
out any severe weather late this weekend or early next week,
there is not enough model consensus at this point for any degree
of confidence for any severe weather. Temperatures look to remain
mild Sunday and Monday with cooler weather then expected Tuesday
through Thursday, with highs in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor for showers and thunderstorms late tonight and
into Friday morning.

Ceilings will likely remain VFR, however, if a thunderstorm
directly impacts an airfield, then both ceilings and visibilities
could fall a flight category or two.

Otherwise, low level wind shear will occur tonight as a 35 to 40
knot low level jet at around 2000 feet will be present.

Safe Travels.


Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Significant fire weather conditions were occuring in areas to the
west of highway 65 this afternoon. Relative humidities have
dropped to near 20 percent in some locations along with southwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph. THese conditions will continue into early
evening bore improving.

On Friday, a sharp dryline will advance into the western areas
by mi-day with strong gusty winds and humidity values dropping.
Red Flag conditions look more likely for areas along and west of
I-49 Friday afternoon and a Fire Weather Watch continues for these
areas and has been expanded to include McDonald County in far
southwest Missouri. Outdoor burning is strongly not recommended
this afternoon or again Friday afternoon.


MO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
FIRE WEATHER...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.