766
FXUS63 KSGF 071907
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms likely Wednesday with very large hail up
  to the size of baseballs, damaging winds and tornadoes. First
  round in the morning with round two in the late afternoon and
  evening. Highest potential for severe storms along and
  southeast of a Joplin to Warsaw line.

- Residual flooding will continue from last night`s storms.
  Localized flooding again Wednesday.

- Drier and cooler conditions for late week and weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis showed a strong upper level shortwave
pivoting north through the Dakotas. West to east mid/upper
level flow was overhead with a 140kt upper level jet across
northern Kansas and northern Missouri. A surface front was
pushing through the area however it was more or less a wind
shift to the west with slightly drier air. Middle 60 dews were
still located ahead of the front east of Highway 65. A few
clouds persisted however most areas were seeing sun with temps
in the upper 70s.

Through Tonight: The front/wind shift will continue pushing east
through the area with drier dews working in. There does appear
to be a signal that this front will begin to wash out with
higher dewpoints remaining just southeast of the area which will
slowly return back north late tonight. No precipitation is
expected through this evening and most of the overnight however
after 3am we will see a compact low level jet develop across
northern OK and southern KS and nose into southwest Missouri
by 6am. At this same time, surface low pressure will begin
shifting through northern OK with a stronger front nosing in as
shortwave energy/lift moves into Kansas and Nebraska.

Thunderstorm Round 1: Short range models and a few high res
models are showing thunderstorms developing as early as 7am
across far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Forecast
soundings show that these would likely be elevated in nature. Of
particular concern is the combination of elevated instability
(2000j/kg of MU CAPE), 0-6km shear of 50kts and steep mid level
lapse rates. This is contributing to the potential for very
large hail (golf balls) with these initial storms. While low
level shear will be high as well, we think the storms may be
elevated enough to keep the tornado threat low however we will
need to monitor this closely. Models however do quickly merge
these developing storms into a line as they move across southern
Missouri during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens
and veers. These storms would likely move further away from the
front with the front trailing back west of Springfield. It
should be noted that a few high res models do not develop the
morning round of storms due to stronger capping aloft. Will need
to also monitor this potential as well.

Thunderstorm Round 2: By mid to late afternoon, stronger lift
will approach the front with additional thunderstorms developing
along the front. The location of the front at time of
thunderstorm initiation is uncertain however it appears it will
be along or just southeast of I-44. 0-6km shear and instability
will be high therefore supercell severe thunderstorms would be
likely with very large hail up to the size of baseballs and
damaging winds the main threats. The low level shear looks to be
weaker with surface winds out of the southwest. This could
limit the tornadic threat. 12z HREF guidance is painting some
very strong updrafts southeast of I-44 during the afternoon
therefore we will need to closely monitor the morning
environment for this afternoon and evening threat. Storms will
likely have exited the area by 9-10pm.

There is residual flooding still from previous rains therefore
will need to monitor rainfall amounts for tomorrow. Any areas
that get both the morning and evening rounds could see localized
flooding with the 12z HREF LPMM showing localized pockets of 1-2
inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Northerly flow aloft looks to prevail for late in the week and
weekend. This will lead to high chances of cooler temperatures
and drier conditions. The coolest day looks to be Friday with
highs in the 60s. Stronger energy aloft looks to push down into
the area on Sunday with the NBM showing 20-30 percent rain
chances leading into Monday along with a return to warmer
conditions.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will persist this afternoon and evening however
another round of thunderstorms and lower flight conditions will
arrive Wednesday morning. Confidence is highest with storms
affecting SGF and BBG with lower confidence in JLN. Low level
wind shear is likely overnight at JLN. Winds will remain
southwesterly this afternoon and evening with a switch to the
south overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield