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000
FXUS64 KSHV 172327
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
627 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Very uneventful WSW flow aloft continues across our region attm
with a weak and ill-defined frontal boundary across far northern
OK and NW AR. A strengthening low level jet from the southwest
will rematerialize late tonight and through the day Thursday
which will further aid in an influx of low level returning
moisture to the region and with it, shower and thunderstorm
chances. The upper level pattern is nothing to write home about
but there is a very weak disturbance aloft that will be moving our
way Thu into Thu Night and it`s this feature that will help to
reinvigorate the boundary to our north. The cold front is
forecast to approach our far northwest zones by late
afternoon/early evening, moving towards the I-30 Corridor of NE TX
into SW AR after midnight Thu Night before stalling once again
early on Friday. This boundary will encounter a moderately
unstable airmass with steep mid-level lapse rates and thus, storms
will pose a large hail and wind theat during the late afternoon
and evening hours.

Concerning temperatures, did not stray too far from NBM temps with
overnight lows or daytime highs on Thursday but temps will be
tricky Thu Night depending on just how far south and east the
boundary is able to make it into our region.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Nearly zonal flow aloft will continue across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley Friday into Friday Night and this could
serve to allow for a slight backdooring of the cold frontal
boundary mentioned in the short term discussion. There are some
indications that this boundary could backdoor as far south as the
I-20 Corridor of NE TX into N LA Friday Night and continuing a very
slowly southward push during the day Saturday.

Speaking of Saturday, upper flow tries to become west
southwesterly aloft upstream of our region as a disturbance moves
out of the Desert Southwest. This will add some upper level
forcing to the picture, especially late Saturday into Saturday
Night and given the available moisture in place with excessive
PWATs, you get the ingredients for the possibility of excessive
heavy rainfall once again returning to our region, what we
definitely do not need. WPC has outlooked much of our area in a
Day 5 Slight Risk for Excessive Heavy Rainfall and this looks
warranted given the antecedent conditions from previous rainfall
and our elevated bodies of water currently. The trough ejects out
early on Sunday, taking the rainfall with it and we finally dry
out to start the upcoming work week. This system will need to
be closely monitored given the rain potential with it but a 2-3
inch rainfall event appears at least possible across portions of
our region beginning Saturday and continuing through early Sunday
before the system moves east of our region.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the 18/00Z TAFs, MVFR to lower VFR CIGs will continue through
the evening hours, increasing in sky coverage from BKN/SCT to OVC
while descending to MVFR areawide, with borderline IFR CIGs
possible near daybreak. Slight chances of showers and storms will
return overnight, increasing in coverage and confidence into the
day tomorrow. Prevailing BR where impacts look most reasonable.
Southerly and southeasterly winds will continue overnight at
speeds of 5 to 10 kts before picking up tomorrow, when gusts of 15
to 20 kts will be possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  87  68  82 /  20  20  30  20
MLU  71  83  66  80 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  65  83  58  71 /  10  30  50  20
TXK  68  85  63  73 /  10  30  50  20
ELD  67  84  63  74 /  10  20  50  20
TYR  70  86  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
GGG  70  85  65  81 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  70  87  66  86 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26