626
FXUS62 KTAE 301358
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
958 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The forecast is on track with no major changes made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For today, an upper level shortwave with a surface trough will push
through the area, likely with just enough lift for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance at seeing
convection appears to be across the northern and western portions of
the area. Fairly weak shear and low coverage of the strongest storms
should keep the severe weather threat on the low side. However,
forecast soundings do show quite a bit of mid level dry air, which
will enhance DCAPE values this afternoon. This could allow for a few
storms to produce gusty winds. Storms will diminish around sunset
this evening with areas of fog possible tonight. High temperatures
are expected to be mainly in the 80s away from the beaches with
overnight lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 433 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A pair of shortwaves look to move across the southeast this weekend.
The first one on Saturday looks to move directly overhead, allowing
for some decent forcing for ascent. Our best rain chances look to be
across our SW Georgia counties, with lower probabilities as one
moves southwest towards the FL Panhandle. On Sunday a shortwave
further to our north moves northeast. Forcing for ascent will be
weaker with this shortwave, leading to lower precip chances than the
Saturday shortwave. Regardless of the day, scattered showers and a
few storms could be possible. Severe weather is not expected.
Otherwise, ridging aloft will allow quiet weather to prevail outside
of this weekend.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon. The highest chances appear to be at DHN and ABY,
where VCTS is indicated in the TAF. Elsewhere, chances appear too
low for an explicit mention at this time. Late tonight, areas of fog
are possible with the highest chances of IFR conditions or lower
around TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The pressure gradient will continue to relax as high pressure
settles over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and possibly a
few storms may be possible today along our western waters as a
disturbance moves across the southeast. Light winds are forecast the
rest of the week with seas generally less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 433 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over
most of the area today with the exception of the southeast big bend.
However, widespread wetting rains are not anticipated. A drier
airmass will move into the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 433 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Minor flooding continues along the Lower Suwannee River. Rain
showers today, and possibly storms, may induce highly localized
nuisance flooding. However, additional riverine flooding is not
expected. After today less than half an inch of rain is forecast
through the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  65  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
Panama City   80  67  84  66 /  20   0  10   0
Dothan        82  64  87  63 /  50  10  10   0
Albany        83  63  87  62 /  50  20  10   0
Valdosta      84  65  88  63 /  20  10  10   0
Cross City    84  63  87  63 /  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  77  68  80  67 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver