Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231057
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
657 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

An upper trough will gradually lift out of the area today with
an attendant surface low and cold front sweeping through the area in
the afternoon hours. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing across the FL Big Bend and SW GA, though they will likely
erode come daytime when drier air pushes into the area. In the
afternoon, some scattered convection ahead of the cold front across
SW GA and the FL Big Bend is possible as some instability may be
present despite persistent cloud cover. Colder temperatures aloft
will aid destabilization as the low moves overhead, perhaps
resulting in some small hail with some of the more dominant storms.
Regardless, the severe threat appears low at this time.

High temperatures across the area will reach the low to mid 70s
today. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s across our SE AL and SW
GA counties with low 50s in our FL counties Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mid level trough moves off the east coast heading into Sunday and
is replaced overhead by shortwave ridging. This ridging will hold
in place through Monday morning ahead of a cold front developing
in the Plains. This front will enter western Missouri and
Arkansas Monday night while showers and storms will be lined up
ahead into the Mid South.

Plenty of sunshine will dominate Sunday with highs reaching the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Some increase in clouds Sunday night will be
short lived into Monday with a few highs around 80 can be
expected. Increase in mid/high clouds will occur Monday night well
ahead of the convection will hold lows in the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

By Tuesday the cold front intersects the mid south with a
prefrontal trough ahead of the front from central Tennessee to
southern Mississippi. The upper pattern will be characterized by
shortwave ridging along the east coast in between two upper lows,
one in the western Atlantic and the other over the northern
states. As the front arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday, signals
in the models show a rapid slowdown as it encounters the ridge
and waits on a kicker shortwave moving from the Texas Big Bend.
The GFS is further west compared to the Euro, which places
additional rainfall Wednesday and early Thursday through our area
and the Euro is further east with the rainfall further east as
well. WPC amounts have come up a little to account for this and we
will see how this evolves in the coming forecasts. Late Thursday,
the system pushes northeastward and northwesterly steering flow
builds in as well as much drier low/mid level air as surface high
pressure dives into the southeast states.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Currently, KECP and KDHN are experiencing IFR and occasionally LIFR
CIG`s and visibilities. Both sites are expected to improve to MVFR
by around 14-15z. All other sites are either at MVFR or above at the
moment and will likely stay that way before improving to VFR
following 18z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
across all terminals this afternoon, though exact location of the
storms remains uncertain. Gusty conditions will develop across all
terminals this afternoon and will last through around 6z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A cold front will move through the coastal waters today, switching
the wind directions from the southwest to northwest following the
passage along with isolated showers and storms. Despite a brief
reprieve in wind speeds early this morning, advisory level winds
return late this morning overspreading much of our coastal waters
today through Sunday morning. Winds remain moderate to
occasionally strong into mid week until another frontal system
moves by. Wave heights will peak Monday night into Tuesday of 8
to 10 feet in far offshore waters with 4 to 8 feet in nearshore
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A cold front will sweep through the area this afternoon
leaving elevated transport winds up to 25-30mph and elevated mixing
heights in its wake. This will lead to high dispersions across our
SE AL and FL Panhandle counties with generally good to elevated
dispersions elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, particularly across our SW GA and FL Big
Bend counties. On Sunday, transport winds out of the east will
diminish somewhat yielding generally good dispersions across the
area. On Monday, elevated mixing heights areawide will yield
elevated dispersions with pockets of high dispersions littered
around the forecast area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Will keep the coastal flood advisory along the Apalachee Bay
coastline through 7AM ET as high tide is winding down allowing
water levels to slowly decrease through the rest of the night.

The flood warning was extended on the Apalachicola at Blountstown
through this weekend, due to an updated plan for releases from
Woodruff Dam.

After the rain this morning, a period of dry conditions can be
expected this afternoon through Monday night. Additional rainfall
is expected with the next frontal system Tuesday into Wednesday.
Although more uncertain, rain could persist into Thursday morning.
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is expected but amounts could be
higher if rainfall indeed persists into Thursday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  51  74  50 /  40   0   0   0
Panama City   72  51  74  54 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        71  46  71  48 /  40   0   0   0
Albany        71  46  68  46 /  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  49  71  47 /  60  10   0   0
Cross City    77  52  75  48 /  40  10   0   0
Apalachicola  72  54  69  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for FLZ115-
     118-127-128.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for GMZ755-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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