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000
FXXX10 KWNP 171231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 17-Apr 19 2024

             Apr 17       Apr 18       Apr 19
00-03UT       3.00         3.00         3.00
03-06UT       1.33         3.33         3.00
06-09UT       1.33         5.00 (G1)    2.67
09-12UT       1.67         4.00         2.33
12-15UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         3.33         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 18 Apr due to an
enhancement from CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024

              Apr 17  Apr 18  Apr 19
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days due to collective potential from
numerous active regions.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 16 2024 1802 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024

              Apr 17        Apr 18        Apr 19
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely all three
days. There is a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio
blackouts all three days due to the flare potential from several
regions.