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000
FXUS65 KTFX 131736
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1136 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Monday, warmer than normal temperatures are forecast, with
highs ranging 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. By Wednesday,
forecast highs are about 10 degrees below normal. Today and
tomorrow, isolated thunderstorm activity is forecast to impact the
region. Widespread snow is forecast for the mid-week period.

&&

.UPDATE...

While conditions are quiet this morning, I did bump temperatures
up across the area, as temperatures did not fall as far as
expected and morning temperatures have been quickly rising. Other
than that, no other changes were made to the existing forecast.
Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
1136 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (13/18Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Some high to mid-
level clouds have developed along the Rocky Mountain Front moving
into the Hi-Plains region along with breezy conditions with wind
gusts up to 25 knots for KCTB through the early evening hours.
Westerly winds diminish tonight becoming calmer for the overnight
period. For KEKS, there is low potential (30%) for a thunderstorm to
develop this afternoon. I have higher confidence for a vicinity
thunderstorm to impact the airfield between 0z/14 and 1z/14. Rain
shower and thunderstorm development is forecasted to be isolated and
between 23z and 3z for mainly south of the I-90 corridor and
Beaverhead County. I didn`t have confidence to include thunderstorms
in KBZN TAFs as latest model guidance continues to support
development for well south of the airport for impacts to airport
operations, but a vicinity rain shower can`t be ruled out for this
evening. Webb

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024/

Note: The forecast area for the National Weather Service Great Falls
Weather Forecast Office includes north central, central and
southwest Montana.

Main points:
- Thunderstorms producing erratic gusty winds, today and tomorrow
- Warmer than normal temperatures through Monday
- Cooler than normal temperatures by Wednesday
- Accumulating snowfall at all elevations, Tuesday and Wednesday

Today through Monday...Week upper level ridging ahead of an upper
level North Pacific Trof dominates through the weekend. Warm
temperatures are forecast through Monday, with highs ranging 10
to 15 degrees, and more, warmer than normal. Clear to scattered
skies favors warming of the Earth`s surface. Most unstable CAPE
values range between 500 and 100 J/kg during the afternoon hours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes our region in an area
of general thunderstorm activity for Saturday and Sunday
afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms are forecast to produce
erratic gusty winds and rain showers. Monday, an upper level trof
enters the Canadian British Columbia west coast, and moves east
southeastward, causing ridge collapse and favoring some strong
gusty winds, especially, across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Rainfall is forecast across portions of central and southwest
Montana.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The afore mentioned upper level trof
approaching from British Columbia, along with the attendant
surface front, enters our region from the north. Tuesday,
temperatures begin to cool, and by Wednesday, high temperatures
are, generally, forecast around 10 degrees below normal. Rainfall
is forecast during the warmer hours, with snowfall developing as
temperatures cool. Widespread snowfall is forecast during the
cooler hours. As road surface temperatures cool, moisture freezes
on surfaces. These surfaces, then, become covered with a layer of
snow, creating some dangerous travel conditions. There is a 40% to
70% probability for Glacier National Park, Kings Hill and the Big
Sky area to receive six inches, or more, of snow. Having said
this, numerical model guidance has been trending lower snow
amounts; therefore, as of this time, there is low confidence in
precipitation type, snow amounts and event timing. As we are able
to gain higher confidence, Watches/Advisories, will be issued.
Widespread breezy to gusty winds are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the strongest winds occurring on Tuesday.

Thursday through Next Saturday...An upper level ridge moves into
our region, favoring a warming trend. Precipitation continues into
Thursday, with most moisture falling as rain. Some light snowfall
is forecast to fall across the mountains. By Saturday, high
temperatures are forecast closer to normal. Breezy to mildly gusty
winds are forecast, most days, and conditions are, generally, mild
and dry, Friday through next Saturday.
- Fogleman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  75  43  74  47 /  10   0  20  30
CTB  70  36  70  43 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  77  44  75  46 /  10  10  20  30
BZN  76  39  72  38 /  20  20  10  20
WYS  64  28  61  26 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  73  39  68  37 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  72  39  74  46 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  69  41  71  43 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls