Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 210855
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up and down but overall seasonable temperatures.

- Several precipitation chances, highest Sunday into early Monday.

- Sunday`s dynamic system also bringing increasing potential
  for strong south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A split flow upper pattern is in place across the region this
morning as a Rex Block pattern to our west continues to break down.
The upper low from the rex block, currently over New Mexico, will
pass over Oklahoma and Texas today, keeping appreciable rain chances
well to our south. We will see an increase in cloud cover today as
mid-level moisture is advected ahead of this shortwave, perhaps just
enough for a brief sprinkle or two. However with plenty of low-level
dry air, the odds of any rainfall reaching the ground remain below
10% at any one spot. The drier low-level air and breaks in the
clouds will help temperatures climb into the 60s, approaching 70
south of I-70 where clouds are thinnest.

By tomorrow, a surface low associated with a weak northern stream
impulse will move across the area, pushing a cold front southeast
mid/late morning. Depending on frontal timing, temperatures may
struggle to rise much post-frontal passage, especially when
factoring in a brisk north wind. Also expecting some scattered light
showers to develop behind the front, particularly closest to the
surface low across far northeast Kansas. The up and down pattern
continues into Saturday as a much deeper trough develops over the
western CONUS. WAA ahead of this trough will attempt to develop some
light precipitation by Saturday morning, with wet-bulb temperatures
across north-central Kansas initially supporting some brief snow.
Once again though, there will be plenty of low-level dry air
present. So PoPs remain low (20-30%) and any rain or snow that does
reach the ground will likely be no more than a few hundredths of an
inch.

The deep upper trough to the west approaches for the second half of
the weekend. Surface low pressure develops in eastern Colorado,
deepening into the low 980s mb across western Kansas on Sunday. This
will set up a very strong pressure gradient across eastern Kansas,
with the 850 mb jet approaching 60 kts. Even with deep mixing of the
boundary layer looking unlikely, this pressure gradient will
support windy conditions. Confidence is beginning to increase in
southerly wind gusts exceeding 40 mph at times, potentially
approaching wind advisory criteria. Shower and thunderstorm
chances begin to increase late Saturday night as the LLJ
dramatically increases WAA, peaking Sunday night as the surface
low and associated cold front sweep east across the area.
Elevated instability seems enough for a few thunderstorms, but
for now the higher instability necessary for strong/severe
storms seems most likely to stay to our southwest. Much colder
air moves in behind the front by later Monday. If any
precipitation lingers late enough, some light snow could occur
Monday night, primarily over north-central Kansas. However this
remains unlikely, with only around 20% of ensemble solutions
showing this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

High clouds and eventually some lower scattered to broken 4-5 kft
ceilings will increase through mid-day, but look to stay VFR through
the period. Winds remain easterly around 10 kts as well, with just a
slight change from east-northeast this morning to east-southeast
Thursday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese


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