National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 121510
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1010 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface ridge axis will slide east today, with a return
to southerly winds this afternoon across at least parts of
the forecast area. Patch of mid and high clouds across parts of
northeast Oklahoma at this time will likely thin this afternoon
as stronger mid and upper level winds shift to the east.
Afternoon max temps look good at this time per latest trends
12z soundings. Made a few tweaks to sky condition through 18z based on
current cloud cover. Otherwise, remaining first period elements are
in line. Will send a quick update to catch any alterations in morning
sky cover.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Above normal temperatures are anticipated over the weekend as the
surface high shifts to the east-southeast of the area resulting
in a southerly low level flow across the area. South-southwest winds
of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph are expected on
Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday morning before tapering off
in the afternoon.

As we move into early next week, the potential for thunderstorms will be on
the increase as a potent mid-level low moves out of the Rockies and into
the Plains. Scattered showers and storms will be possible as early as Monday
afternoon as a zone of isentropic lift develops in the southwesterly flow
aloft during that time. The better potential for thunderstorms will come
Monday evening into the Monday nigh as thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the dry line across western Oklahoma late Monday afternoon/evening
and spread east into the region as time wears on. Some of these storms will
likely be severe with adequate deep layer shear and instability anticipated.
All modes of severe weather will be possible. However, there continues to be a
degree of uncertainty with this system concerning overall strength, track and
timing. The forecast will continue to be refined as the event draws closer. The
potential for showers/storms will come to an end Tuesday afternoon/early evening
as the storm system moves east of the area.

Another unseasonably warm day is expected Wednesday in advance of the next
cold front that is slated to move through the area on Thursday. This front
will also serve as the focus for more showers and storms Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  55  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  52  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75  50  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   73  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   71  52  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  54  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  52  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  57  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  53  78  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05