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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191700
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Elevated boundary to the south will keep cloud cover increasing for much
of the day from south to north, though some thinning will be possible
during the afternoon where morning clouds have remained persistent.
Will keep the non zero PoP (with no mention in the zone text) for the
afternoon across far SE OK. Temperatures for the afternoon look good,
especially with a few peeks of sun expected later on. Made a few tweaks
to sky cover through 18z based on latest trends, so will send a zone update
to catch any changes to the zone text. Otherwise remaining first period
elements are in line.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

This evening through tonight a surface boundary is expected to set
up along/near Interstate 40...while at the same time the 850-mb
frontal boundary remains in the region and a shortwave/vort max
approaches. Thus...shower and thunderstorm chances increase along
and south of the surface boundary this evening and become likely
overnight tonight as the vort max lifts east northeast into the
region. Again...the greater instability through tonight remains
south of the Red River and will continue with chance thunder near
the Red River and slight chance thunder up to the surface
boundary near I-40.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday and then taper
off Saturday night from northwest to southeast as the weak
shortwave slides through the CWA. Greater thunder chances will
remain along and south of I-40...with rain chances expanding over
Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas as the wave
nears/moves through. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across far
Southeast Oklahoma with this activity. With the movement of the
shortwave...the surface boundary is expected to slide southeast of
the CWA by early Sunday morning. In the wake of the departing
wave/boundary...cloud cover is forecast to scatter out with mostly
clear skies by mid/late afternoon Sunday. Rain chances help keep
temps cool for Saturday...though Sunday into the start of next
week a warming trend returns. A secondary shortwave is forecast to
move southeast through the region Sunday night...though with
limited moisture...the passage of this wave is expected to remain
dry.

Southerly winds return Monday ahead of another cold front progged
to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening and exit the CWA
early Wednesday morning. The southern portion of a lead vort max
looks to slide through Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
Monday night...which combined with increasing warm advection and a
30-40KT low level jet...shower and thunderstorm chances develop
late Monday night into Tuesday. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms remain over parts of the CWA Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the frontal boundary crosses the region.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the second
half of the work week...with the greater potential looking toward
the end of the week as another shortwave and frontal boundary
approach from the west. Ahead of the late week wave...gusty
southerly winds return which will aid in the transport of low
level moisture back into the region. Increasing instability during
this time period could create limited severe potentials late week.
This will continue to be monitored over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Across the KMLC/KFSM sites, VFR TAF elements will
prevail, though through 00z there will be periods of MVFR cigs.
After 08-09z RA/-TSRA chances will begin to increase so will
include PROB30 groups with MVFR cigs/vsbys in thunder. With
increasing coverage later in the period, will carry MVFR
cigs/vsbys in thunder as prevailing from 14z/15z on through the
remainder of the valid period. Across the remaining NE OK and NW
AR sites, VFR TAF elements will prevail through the entire period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  63  45  65 /  20  30  20   0
FSM   51  60  47  66 /  40  60  30   0
MLC   52  57  46  64 /  80  70  60   0
BVO   43  63  42  65 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   47  60  42  64 /  20  20  20   0
BYV   47  61  43  63 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   50  60  46  64 /  40  40  20   0
MIO   44  62  42  63 /  10  20  10   0
F10   50  58  46  64 /  50  50  40   0
HHW   54  56  47  63 /  80  90  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...23