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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240950
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 AM MST Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with a roller-coaster side in temperatures for
the next week. Gusty winds, especially on Thursday and Saturday,
due to weather systems pushing across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed high clouds
streaming over the area under southwest flow aloft out ahead on an
upper low that was located around 650 miles WSW of San Diego.
Pressure gradient tightens today bringing afternoon breezes as
this system slowly moves toward srn CA/nrn Baja. Highs today will
run 2 to 7 degrees cooler than Tuesday with wrn/cntrl Pima county
seeing the biggest day-to-day change.

Tonight into Thursday: This low opens up and lifts across Arizona
tomorrow. Limited moisture with this system with main impact being
strong gusty winds and a much cooler air mass. Winds speeds will
be strongest east of Tucson but remain below advisory levels. See
fire weather sections for concerns. Highs will run 4 to 10 degrees
cooler than today with translate as 4 to 8 degrees below late
April norms.

Friday: Highs rebound a few degrees warmer as the area will be in
between weather systems.

Saturday: Next storm system, this one a bit deeper with a little
more moisture, will move across the state. Again looking at
another round of strong gusty winds, cooler high temperatures,
and a small chance, less then 25%, of rain/snow showers for mainly
the mountains NE of Tucson.

Sunday: Less wind and warmer with high temperature rebounding
5 to 8 degrees warmer.

Monday and Tuesday: Warming trend continues with highs on Tuesday
being near what occurred this past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 24/21Z, then SKC conditions to a
FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period.
SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 23/18Z and
again aft 25/03Z. SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 12-18 kts and gusts to 22-28
kts between 24/18Z and 25/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are
expected today. A weather system will move north of the area on
Thursday, dropping temperatures below normal and increasing wind
speeds. Wind speeds will be near critical levels over portions of
Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Another weather system will
move across the area Friday night and Saturday, resulting in even
cooler temperatures and highs 5-10 degrees below normal, as well as
strong winds areawide. This system will also bring a slight chance
of showers north/northeast of Tucson Friday night into Saturday. Min
RH values in the valleys will be 7-14 percent today, increasing to
10-20 percent Thursday through Saturday. Min RH values in the
mountains will be 10-18 percent today, increasing to 20-30 percent
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

2699

$$

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