Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 200825
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
325 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms from last nights cold front will slowly exit
out of the southern Panhandles this morning. Storms expected
this evening across east central NM, and may make it into the
southwest TX Panhandle. Hi res CAM`s do not support this, and
thusly only have a slight chance of storms, which may get pulled
with the update, or afternoon package.

Upper level low will continue to dig across the western CONUS and
will bring southwest flow back to the area. Showers and storms
should return off the NM mountains on Monday, and should make it
to the western Panhandles Monday night. The low will stall out
south of the Great Basin, and with subtle impulses embedded in
the southwest flow, expect a continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Shear profiles really don`t look that great with
the latest model runs, and thusly general to strong thunderstorms
look to be the most favorable type.

Upper level ridge will begin to build over the west late in the
week. As a result, westerly to northwesterly flow will be expected.
Thursday looks to be the transition day and thusly has minimal
pops. However, northwest flow from Friday onward, will bring the
possibility for more thunderstorms to develop over the CO/NM
mountains and enter the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR conditions is expected to prevail at
all terminals, though we will be monitoring for brief MVFR CIGs as
stratus filters in behind a cold front at KDHT BTWN 20/12Z thru
20/20Z. Otherwise, northerly winds around 15 to 25 kts should
taper off by 20/12Z and become more southerly at all terminals
around 20/18Z return surface flow begins. Otherwise, no VIS
restrictions are expected during the forecast period.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  57  79  60  79 /  10  20  10  40  40
Beaver OK                  72  56  84  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  30
Boise City OK              69  54  80  57  81 /   5  20  10  30  30
Borger TX                  73  58  83  62  82 /  10  20  10  30  40
Boys Ranch TX              71  57  81  60  82 /  10  20  10  40  40
Canyon TX                  69  57  79  59  79 /  10  20  10  40  40
Clarendon TX               71  59  78  61  80 /  20  20  10  40  50
Dalhart TX                 71  54  80  57  81 /   5  20  10  40  40
Guymon OK                  73  55  84  60  83 /   5  10  10  20  30
Hereford TX                68  57  78  59  79 /  10  20  10  40  40
Lipscomb TX                70  57  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  20  30
Pampa TX                   70  57  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  30  40
Shamrock TX                72  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  10  20  40
Wellington TX              74  62  81  63  84 /  20  20  10  30  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/98



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