Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 250242
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system over the region will lift
northeast to the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday. Another low
pressure system will move through the area Thursday night and
Friday, with a possible third disturbance lingering on Saturday.
High pressure will move into the region early next week
bringing dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
An upper level low is positioned over the southern Appalachians
late this evening, and is forecast to shift across western and
central North Carolina through the night. At the surface, a
weak area of low pressure is located over south-central North
Carolina, with an associated warm front extending eastward from
the low and a weak cold front/trough stretched southwest from
the low across the western Midlands and CSRA. The surface low
will track off to the northeast tonight, while the trailing cold
front becomes more diffuse as it crosses the area.

Showers have diminished in coverage, and are rather isolated
across parts of the western Midlands and up towards the Catawba
Valley late this evening. As the surface low pulls away to the
northeast, it is expected that any lingering showers will come
to an end during the early overnight hours. Cloud cover is
rather extensive across the area, but partial clearing is
expected to develop across much of the area during the overnight
hours. Low temperatures should be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stacked low pressure system over North Carolina Wednesday
morning will lift northeast to the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday
night. We continued slight chance pops across the northern
Midlands on Wednesday given surface troughing and weak
instability. Downslope flow and shallow moisture should limit
convection.

A southern stream short wave trough will swing through the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday while surface low pressure moves northeastward
across Georgia Thursday afternoon and across the Carolinas Thursday
night. This will bring another chance for showers during the day on
Thursday with the best chance Thursday night as the deepest moisture
crosses the region. Models indicate weak instability with LI values
ranging from -1 to -3, so cannot rule out isolated thunder.

The center of surface low pressure will lift northeastward away
from the region on Friday with lingering surface troughing
across the Midlands. A cold front will approach the area during
the day and cross the area Friday night. This will support
slight chance pops for a majority of the area with chance pops
north on Friday.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will range from the mid 70s to
around 80...and the mid 70s on Friday. Overnight lows will
range through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through the long term.

An upper level trough will cross the area and shift off the East
Coast on Saturday. Upper ridging along with surface high pressure
will move into the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry weather along
with seasonable temperatures can be expected early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the period.

Scattered to broken cumulus and VFR conditions will dominate
through the period. Southwest winds have diminished and will
remain less than 10 kts through the night. Winds will shift more
westerly on Wednesday. Fog threat appears low with mixing in
the boundary layer.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Another low pressure system will bring restrictions Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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