Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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376
FXUS64 KEWX 201200
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
700 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cloud cover continues to slowly thicken along the Rio Grande
according to the latest 11-3.9 satellite imagery and surface
observations. We also continue to see some showers move in from the
west across the Rio Grande plains. However, this activity is isolated
and should generally remain south of DRT. For now, we will not
mention any precipitation in the DRT forecast. Otherwise, no
significant changes have been made to the forecast with cigs still
expected to drop into MVFR between 02-03Z for all sites except AUS
(06Z). Cigs will continue to lower late tonight into early Saturday
morning with IFR expected along the I-35 corridor developing between
07-10Z. We have kept cigs low end MVFR at DRT as stronger winds
should promote slightly higher cloud bases. Otherwise, gusty east to
southeast winds continue through the period, especially along the Rio
Grande.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
An upper level disturbance is exiting the northeast Mexican mountains
and expected to enter between Eagle Pass and Laredo area within the
next hour. Elevated convection is occurring as this feature moves to
the east early this morning and based on radar trends, this activity
should be affecting parts of the Rio Grande Plains before dawn. HiRes
models suggest for some of the convection to make it all the way to
highway 83 before things dry out for the rest of the day. Breeze
conditions are expected for much of the day, specially along the Rio
Grande Plains with 10 to 20 mph sustained and gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Better chances for rain come late tonight into Saturday as an upper
level low pressure system moves across the Southern Plains. There
will be two rounds of convection; the first one is associated with a
dry-line moving across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains on Saturday afternoon and the second one is with the passage
of a cold front in the evening hours. Cloudiness will play a big
part on how much convection we get across the area on Saturday,
however, any break that we do get from cloud coverage will be
utilized to enhance the potential for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms across the northeastern part of our CWA late in the afternoon
and evening. Main weather hazards will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The cold front and associated convection are expected to move away
from the area Saturday night for a rain free day on Sunday. Things
are quiet for much of the first part of next week with rain chances
returning on Wednesday as another cold front moves across the area.
Medium-range models are in disagreement with this new weather system
and the extended forecast was made with a model blend approach.
Temperatures should be near normal climate values for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  58  75  54  76 /  10  30  60  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  56  75  54  76 /  10  30  60  30   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  58  77  55  77 /  10  30  50  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  56  76  51  73 /  10  30  50  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  64  88  57  84 /  20  20  10   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  55  74  52  74 /  10  30  60  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  63  81  56  82 /  20  30  40  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  57  75  55  76 /  10  30  50  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  57  76  58  75 /   0  20  60  40  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  62  77  58  79 /  10  30  50  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  63  78  59  79 /  10  30  50  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...17



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