Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231053
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
653 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving, deepening low pressure system will move across
the southern Mid-Atlantic states today and Tuesday, bringing
widespread rain and gusty winds. The low will move northeast
Wednesday and push a cold front through the area Wednesday
night. Several weak disturbances will affect the area late
Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 650 AM Mon...A ridge of high pressure is slowly
retreating offshore, as a developing low pressure system over
the Lower Mississippi Valley creeps closer to the region.
Widespread mid and high clouds will continue to lower
throughout the day. However, showers will be slow to move into
the region, with a sizable layer of dry air in the mid levels
through late this morning. Showers will then increase
significantly from west to east during the afternoon and
evening, and have PoPs trending towards likely and categorical
over western zones. Current temps are holding steady in the low
to mid 50s inland, with upper 50s to low 60s present along the
coast. High temps will only reach the upper 60s to around 70 due
to the thick clouds and scattered showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Mon...PoPs will continue to trend upward as good
lift and forcing move into the CWA as the warm front lifts
through. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are likely by
early Tuesday morning, with a strong moisture feed over the area
reaching from the Caribbean. Low temps will be mild with strong
SE flow, mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Have issued a wind advisory beginning early Tuesday morning for
Down East Carteret, Outer Banks Hyde, and Outer Banks Dare, as
sustained winds of 30-35 mph are likely, with gusts to 40-45 mph
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Slow moving upper low and associated
surface low will produce ongoing wet and windy period into
Tuesday. Lingering upper trough pattern will then result in
some chance of showers into Saturday, with ridging and drying
expected Saturday night into Sunday.

Models remain in decent agreement with some typical timing
differences. Main system will be Tuesday with cutoff upper low
lifting into Ohio valley, then dampening and lifting out as an
open wave Tuesday night into Wednesday. A series of weaker waves
moving through mean upper trough will follow late Thu into
Friday and again Friday night into Saturday.

For Tuesday, deep moisture axis with PW over 1.5 inches along
with strong lift will produce ongoing period of heavy rain,
while tight pressure gradient between low pressure approaching
from SW and strong high pressure to the NE will produce gusty
SE winds. Wind advisory criteria expected for coastal sections
from Carteret county north with sustained winds up to 35 mph
and gusts over 40 mph. This will also bring a myriad of coastal
concerns (see coastal flood section below). Moisture convergence
is maximized Tue, where widespread rainfall amounts will total
1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts. Latest guidance
continues to support stronger lift and deeper moisture will be
lifting to NE during afternoon while best instability will be
seen later in afternoon, thus expect more of a heavy rain threat
early in day than any organized severe threat. Categorical POPs
all zones into early afternoon will gradually taper off from SW
by late afternoon. Max temps from mid 60s north to lower 70s
south.

Tuesday night...Surface low will be moving across just inland of
area with precip tapering off as some dry-slotting moves over
area, along with winds gradually diminishing as tighter pressure
gradient moves N and E of area. POPs will diminish to chance
overnight with low temps from upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through the weekend...Dampening upper trough will
finally lift across area Wednesday with lingering small chance
of showers. Wed night looks dry with brief period of upper
ridging, then low chance POPs for showers will exist for Thu
into Saturday as series of dampening short waves move through
mean upper trough with associated weak surface features. Rain
will become more scattered and taper off as the sfc low lifts NE
and drier air filters in. Temps will warm well into 70s inland
on Wed, then generally low to mid 70s rest of period except for
65-70 Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 655 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for most of the
TAF period, with MVFR and then IFR conditions expected from
Monday evening onward. Ceilings will continue to lower
throughout the day, with winds increasing out of the SSE. Rain
showers will begin to move into the airspace early this
afternoon, and become more widespread and heavier into Monday
night.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions Mon night and Tue
as a low pressure system tracks across the Carolinas producing
widespread rain and gusty winds. Conditions will improve to
mostly VFR Wednesday through Friday, but the threat of isolated
to scattered showers will continue each day with a possibility
of brief sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 355 AM Mon...Deteriorating conditions are expected after
this morning, with Gale Warnings posted for the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet as well as the Pamlico Sound. Small craft
conditions are also expected for the northern coastal waters,
Albemarle Sound, and inland rivers.

Winds currently E/SE 10-15 kts, will increase this afternoon,
especially south of Cape Hatteras, becoming 20-25 kts. Winds
further increase tonight becoming ESE 25-35 kts, with gusts to
40 knots. Seas, fairly tranquil this morning, will build to 5-8
ft by early afternoon, and then 8-14 ft by early Tuesday
morning.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Ongoing strong and gusty E-SE winds will
continue gradually veer to SE and peak at 30-35 KT mainly off
Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras during the day as deepening low
pressure approaches from SW. Winds will become S-SW Wed night
and diminish below 20 KT, shifting to NW and N 10 Kt or less Wed
night into Thu behind weak cold front. Series of relatively weak
systems will affect area late Thu into Friday and again Friday
night into Saturday with speeds mainly 15 KT or less.

Seas peaking 10-15 KT Tuesday will gradually subside to 6-9 ft
by Wed morning, finally dropping below 6 feet by Thu morning,
and then lingering around 3-4 ft into Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM Mon...A low pressure system will impact the
region tonight through late Tuesday. Strong SE winds will
develop, resulting in many coastal impacts across Eastern NC.
Minor coastal flooding will be possible as early as late tonight
but especially Tuesday, for areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound
and rivers, as strong southeast winds develop. Winds are
expected to funnel water up the Pamlico River, leading to
possible minor flooding up through the town of Washington. Minor
coastal flooding, beach erosion, and overwash will be possible
late tonight through Tuesday night for areas along the
immediate coast. Rough surf, dangerous shore break, and a high
rip current risk are expected along the beaches.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ103-104.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ095-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ095-
     098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ130-
     131.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...JBM/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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