Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 211118
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Forecast concerns into early next week will be any light rain
this weekend, the extent of the clouds and temperatures, then
next week`s rain chances Tuesday.

The mid tropospheric area of low pressure was centered over the four
corners region at 00Z with around 50m height falls associated with
it. By 04Z...water vapor satellite imagery, radar, and lightning
showed a broad area of moisture over the Central Plains with
sprinkles over South Dakota and showers from Nebraska into Kansas.
The lightning was mostly confined to southern Kansas into
Oklahoma. By 07Z...Columbus had reported a trace and a few areas
in central Nebraska had picked up a tenth of an inch or two.  At
the surface, low pressure was noted from Colorado into west Texas
with a northeast surface flow over the Missouri River Valley.
Temperatures in the 40s and 50s with dry dewpoints in the 20s to
lower 30s.

Through Sunday...the broad diffluent flow continues with the right
rear entrance of the upper level jet over the Great Lakes and the
jet from New Mexico to Nebraska translating eastward with time as
the upper low slowly tracks across the Plains. Some of the energy
remains across Iowa/srn MN, while a more compact h5 low centers
over Arkansas. The bulk of the storms should remain close the the
low center over the southern Plains. Locally, ceilings are
around 5-10k ft. and hold around this level throughout the day.
We`ll see some spotty light rain/sprinkles across the forecast
area. The precipitation should be light; sprinkles or a hundredth
or so along and north of I80 and generally a trace to a tenth of
an inch toward the Kansas Missouri border today into Sunday.
Timesections show quite a bit of cloudiness through the weekend.
The cyclonic flow holds the clouds in more across the southern cwa
with improvement near the South Dakota border. The clouds linger
Monday with some sunshine hinted at with the models trying to
bring some drying in from western Iowa Monday. The next trough
over Montana/Wyoming will be on the heels of the current storm
Monday night. Temperatures remain at or below normal in the 50s
and 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 60s and normal lower are in
the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The trough moving through the Northern Plains with bring another
chance for rain Tuesday. The GFS is a bit colder than the EC with
the thermal profile, so we`ll have to see if we get some better
agreement with future runs. Temperatures behind the cold front
should drop back below normal in the 50s to lower 60s with breezy
northwest winds. There may be a few lingering sprinkles Wednesday
 and a reinforcing cold front Thursday with a little light rain or
sprinkles and increasing northwest winds behind the front. Highs
are forecast to be around 60 each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

A mid to upper-level low over CO this morning will track east-
southeast today with a downstream zone of divergent flow aloft
fostering isolated to widely scattered showers across the area
into afternoon. The low-level air mass remains relatively dry
with ceilings remaining generally above FL060-080. Any lingering
shower activity should end prior to 00z Sunday with persistent,
light easterly winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Mead



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