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000
FXUS64 KOUN 192340
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances begin increasing tonight as dynamic ascent associated
with an approaching shortwave overspreads an H850 frontal boundary
that sharpens over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. As
the wave approaches and isentropic lift deepens, elevated instability
spreads northward from central Texas into our area late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Storms could become strong to marginally
severe, primarily across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas,
and lead to some small hail. With little instability prog`d tomorrow,
mostly rain is expected with rainfall potentially lingering through
late Saturday night. Overall, rainfall totals have trended slightly
lower. Most likely range of total rainfall amounts (25th, 50th, 75th
percentiles):

Wichita Falls: 0.37, 1.01, 1.61 inches
Durant: 0.37, 0.77, 1.08 inches
Lawton: 0.08, 0.53, 0.82 inches
Oklahoma City: 0, 0.34, 0.46 inches

Other than the rain, cooler temperatures will be observed tomorrow
with highs in the 50`s and 60`s.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain is expected to continue near the Red River into late Saturday
evening and possibly lingering over southeastern Oklahoma early
Sunday morning.

Cool weather continues into Sunday with decreasing clouds. Then, a
weak upper ridge passes overhead and finally pushes the surface high
southeast of our region allowing northeast winds to shift south
beginning Sunday night as a lee-side trough develops. An approaching
southern-stream shortwave then results in a tightening pressure gradient,
and there is a medium chance (40-60%) that wind gusts reach wind advisory
criteria over northwest Oklahoma on Monday. This, along with ERC values
greater than 65%, could lead to elevated fire weather conditions over
northwest Oklahoma. Interestingly, localized flash-drought conditions
have evolved over a small area of northwest Oklahoma and can be seen
on the Oklahoma Mesonet page. Woods County has gone over a 100 days
without a wetting rain (0.25 inches), and this probably bleeds over
into the neighboring counties. A brief warming trend occurs Monday
and Tuesday, before another cold front moves into the area on Tuesday
or Wednesday.

Very warm conditions and severe storm chances return next Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Ceilings will lower overnight with rain chances increasing for
mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas after 9-10z.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in these areas.
Ceilings will lower into MVFR and potentially IFR for a period of
time at SPS and DUA during the afternoon. The bulk of the rain is
expected to exit the area towards the end of the TAF period,
around or after 00z Sun. Winds will remain fairly steady from the
northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  60  45  63 /  40  50  30   0
Hobart OK         46  58  43  62 /  50  70  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  56  45  62 /  80  90  70   0
Gage OK           39  58  38  63 /  10  30  20   0
Ponca City OK     44  62  42  63 /  10  20  10   0
Durant OK         52  55  47  65 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08