Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 051659
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         APRIL 5, 2018

The 2018 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado Mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores, and
San Juan basins. It should be emphasized that snow typically accumulates into
April, therefore conditions may change before the runoff begins.

Currently, no sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows at or
above the flood flow even at the 10% exceedance level.

In general, below average peaks are expected across western Colorado.
Highest flows, with respect to average, are forecast in the Upper Colorado
Mainstem river basins. Keep in mind instantaneous peaks can be higher than
mean daily peaks, especially in headwater basins. Specific forecast procedures
and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

March precipitation was below to much below normal across western Colorado and
ranged from 45 to 85 percent of average. Water year precipitation to date
(October through March) is much below average:

Yampa/White                80%
Upper CO Mainstem          80%
Gunnison                   60%
Dolores/San Miguel         50%
San Juan                   45%

April 1st snow water equivalent values remain below to much below median
across western Colorado:

Yampa/White                70%
Upper CO Mainstem          80%
Gunnison                   50%
Dolores/San Miguel         55%
San Juan                   50%

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below to much below average across western Colorado river basins. Highest
forecasts, as a percent of average, are in the Upper Colorado Mainstem basins
which generally range between 65 and 85 percent of average. The Yampa/White
forecasts range from 50 to 70 percent of average. Gunnison and Dolores
basin forecasts generally range from 40 to 60 percent of average and San
Juan basin forecasts generally range between 30 and 50 percent of average.

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate
flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2018-04-01   1600   1900   2100   2700   3600
ELK - MILNER, NR            6220 2018-04-01   2000   2300   2500   3000   4500
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2018-04-01   4500   5500   6500   8000  10000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR    14700 2018-04-01   1300   1700   2300   2700   4000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20600 2018-04-01   5500   7000   8500  10000  12500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8570 2018-04-01   1100   1300   1600   1900   2200
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2250 2018-04-01    210    240    300    380    450
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1650 2018-04-01    350    420    500    660    750
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    370 2018-04-01     40     50     70     85    100
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2018-04-01   1250   1350   1900   2400   3200
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2018-04-01   2700   3200   4500   6600   9000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2018-04-01    750    900   1100   1300   1700
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2018-04-01   1800   2400   3000   4000   4800
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2018-04-01   5200   6500   8600  12300  16000
EAST - ALMONT               3160 2018-04-01    800    950   1050   1300   1500
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14460 2018-04-01   1100   1400   1600   1900   2300
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1500 2018-04-01     25     35     40     60     70
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  20550 2018-04-01   3160   3160   3160   3300   3300
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1790 2018-04-01    300    400    450    550    600
DOLORES - DOLORES           7170 2018-04-01    900   1050   1150   1400   1600
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   -999 2018-04-01    400    500    550    630    750
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2018-04-01   6000   7000  10000  14000  18000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5800 2018-04-01    800   1000   1100   1300   1500
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10500 2018-04-01   1100   1400   1700   2200   2600
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2018-04-01   1100   1500   1800   2400   2900
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         1100 2018-04-01     60     90    120    150    230


CBRFC/Moser



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