Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FNUS72 KGSP 210419
FWSGSP

Spot Forecast for Mt Sterling SAR-Spain...Great Smoky Mtns NP
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1219 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0100 EDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A moist air mass will remain atop the region through at least
Tuesday. This will result in a continued high chance of showers and
storms each afternoon and evening. For the spot site itself, patchy
morning valley fog can be expected, and low clouds will likely
obscure the mountaintops until mid-morning when cloud bases lift;
even then however average cloud bases will not be much higher than
the peaks. Looks like showers/thunderstorms will start developing
just after noon, with increasing coverage through the afternoon.
While severe thunderstorms are not expected, frequent lightning,
heavy rain, and gusty winds will be likely in these thunderstorms.
Isolated, localized flash flooding will remain a threat.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Surface winds.......South winds around 6 mph after midnight
                    becoming light.
Ceiling (FT)........16000 decreasing to 3500.
Visibility (SM).....7.

TIME (EDT)      1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........66  67  66  65  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10
Temp............63  62  62  61  61
RH..............74  75  76  77  79
Aparnt tmp (F)..63  62  62  61  61
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.6   6   6   5   4
Surface wnd gst.9   9   8   7   5
Ceiling (hft)...160 110 70  45  35
Visibility (sm).8   7   7   7   7

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    morning, then numerous showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Ceiling (FT)........2400 increasing to 6000 late in the morning.
Visibility (SM).....7.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  62  68  74  80  81  85  88  92  89  85  82
Weather cov.....            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  20  20  30  40  50  60  60  70  70
Temp............61  61  63  64  65  67  68  68  69  69  69  69
RH..............80  80  78  77  75  74  72  70  69  68  68  68
Aparnt tmp (F)..61  61  63  64  65  67  68  68  69  69  69  69
Surface wnd dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
Surface wnd spd.4   4   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   8   8
Surface wnd gst.5   5           5   5   6   8   8   9   9   10
Ceiling (hft)...24  26  24  30  60  21  20  18  18  19  21  21
Visibility (sm).7   7   7   9   9   10  10  10  9   9   9   9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Surface winds.......South winds 6 to 8 mph.
Ceiling (FT)........6000 then decreasing to 4500 in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Visibility (SM).....7 until early morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  71  65  67  68  70  71  73  74  75  76  78
Weather cov.....NUM NUM CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO SCT CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  40  40  40  30  30  30  30  30  20  20
Temp............69  68  65  64  63  62  61  61  60  60  59  59
RH..............67  69  72  76  81  84  85  85  85  86  86  87
Aparnt tmp (F)..69  68  65  64  63  62  61  61  60  60  59  59
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.8   6   6   8   8   9   9   8   8   8   8   8
Surface wnd gst.10  9   9   10  13  14  14  13  12  12  12  12
Ceiling (hft)...21  24  24  180 60  60  60  60  60  60  45  45
Visibility (sm).9   9   7   7   7   7   7   7

$$
Forecaster...Trisha Palmer
Requested by...Ranger Jeff Duckett
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 1810368.0/GSP
.DELDT 05/21/18


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