Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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443
FNUS72 KMLB 192253
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for 1.2 North...USFWS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
653 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and mesonet suggests sea breeze pushed inland to very near
the fire complex over the last hour or two. Tower 421 just to the
south is still reporting WNW winds at 14 gust 18. Expect somewhat
variable and erratic winds for the next couple hours, before
boundary pushes back toward the coast.

A weak frontal boundary will approach from the north early Friday
morning. Winds will veer northwest to northeast rather quickly
Friday morning. Front should be mainly dry.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....4.

TIME (EDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7   8   8   8   8   8   8   30  30  30  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............77  75  73  71  69  69  69  68  68  68  67
RH..............55  59  63  68  72  74  75  76  77  78  79
20 FT wind dir..W-SE W  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..14  12  9   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.20  18                                  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   8
Dispersion idx..4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to
                    21 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2800-3600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 23
                    mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 55.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........30     55     55     55     68     68
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     67     73     75     75     75
RH..............78     75     66     64     65     64
20 ft wind......N 8    N 10   NE 15  NE 16  NE 17  NE 22
20 ft wind gust.10     15     20     20     25     30
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    2000   3000   3300   3500
Transport wind..N 8    N 10   NE 15  NE 20  NE 23  NE 22
Dispersion idx..4      0      29     47     58     57
LVORI...........4      4      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Blottman
Requested by...Michael Good
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806984.2/MLB
.EMAIL Michael_good@fws.gov



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