Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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Spot Forecast for Buck 50...USFS
National Weather Service Portland OR
831 PM PDT Mon May 21 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 PDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Portland, Oregon office.

...WARMER AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge will continue building over the
area on Tuesday with warm temperatures in the afternoon with
increasing instability as mid-level Haines 6 conditions expected.
However, general onshore flow and some residual moisture will
keep daytime humidities above critical thresholds. Slight chance
of an afternoon thunderstorm near the crest of the Cascades on
Tuesday afternoon, but this should remain well east of the burn
location. Pattern shifts a bit Wednesday with increasing moisture
and the chance of a thunderstorm near the burn location on
Wednesday.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....78-83.
Min humidity........32-37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Upslope to 5 mph, then west to 3 to 7 mph
                    in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......Near surface in the morning, then 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index(High)..2 (very low).
Haines Index (Mid)..6 (high).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.


TIME (PDT)      1000      1200    1400    1600    1800
Sky (%).........5         5       5       5       15
Temp............63        71      76      80      80
RH..............53        44      39      40      40
20 ft wind......Upslp 2   Upslp 3 W 5     W 5     W 4
20 ft wind gust.4         4       6       8       8


.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....53-58.
Max humidity........83-88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 3 to 7 mph, becoming
                    drainage less than 5 mph late.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL, then near surface.
Transport winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index(High)..2 (very low).
Haines Index (Mid)..5 (moderate).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in
                    the morning, then a chance of showers and a
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....72-77.
Min humidity........49-54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable 0 to 3 mph, becoming west up to 6 mph
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......Near surface, then 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index(High)..3 (very low).
Haines Index (Mid)..5 (moderate).
Rainfall amount.....Up to 0.10 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Cullen
Requested by...Dirk Rogers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810439.0/PQR
.EMAIL drogers02@fs.fed.us



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