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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A subtropical ridge centered north of the
Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds
across the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale-force off NW
Colombia tonight. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale-force by Mon morning, however,
fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through at least Thu. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N16W to 00N30W and to 01N45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and east of
16W. Similar convection is noted south of 05N and between 25W and
47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure system located in the NE Gulf of Mexico
dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are present
south of 26N and east of 90E and in the remainder of the Gulf west
of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are found in the NE Gulf, north of 26N and east of
90E.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong
winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the
next several evenings. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds with
slight to moderate seas can be expected through early next week.
Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf on Mon
night into Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale
warning off the coast of Colombia.

A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean Sea, along 66W.
Isolated showers are noted near the boundary, affecting the
islands in the area and surrounding waters. Similar convection is
also noted in the north-central Caribbean, affecting SW Haiti and
Jamaica. Generally dry conditions are found elsewhere in the
Caribbean.

Outside of the gale warning region, the pressure gradient between
the broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and
lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near
gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, eastern Caribbean and lee of Cuba.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
remaining waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the
coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 11
ft. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Windward
Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for
the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the
middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic near 31N58W and continues
southwestward to 27N63W, becoming a stationary front to eastern
Cuba. Light showers are evident on satellite imagery near the
frontal boundary. Farther east, a broad 1008 mb low pressure
system is located near 32N32W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass show fresh to strong cyclonic winds north of 25N and between
27W and 45W. Wave heights in these waters are 10-16 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 31N36W. A shear line extends from
26N24W to 17N40W and to 16N61W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and
seas of 8-11 ft are evident north of the shear line to 23N and
west of 45W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will gradually dissipate through Mon. Large N-NE swell across the
waters impacting Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will
linger through early this week. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front early in the week with more tranquil marine
conditions expected.

$$
Delgado