Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
156 FNUS21 KWNS 031445 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico. Morning surface observations and 12 UTC soundings from ABQ and EPZ show very dry conditions at/near the surface with RH values generally in the teens to low 20s across parts of far southwest TX and south-central NM. This air mass should spread northeast behind an eastward migrating dryline this afternoon. Weak mid and upper-level winds will limit the overall magnitude of the fire weather potential, but ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence of 15-20 mph winds co-located with the driest conditions. Furthermore, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs generally reside in the 80-90th percentile across this region after several days of limited rainfall, which should support the fire weather concern. Elevated conditions are also expected further north into south-central CO, but will be more localized and driven by terrain-induced winds. ..Moore.. 05/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through northern Mexico today and eject into West Texas by early tomorrow morning. A weak surface trough is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as a result. Portions of the Southwest will experience dry and breezy conditions for period during the afternoon. Given the short duration of these conditions, only locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$