464
FXAK69 PAFG 042137
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 PM AKDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper low over the Bering Sea will progress southeast into the
Gulf of Alaska through Monday, while an upper low over the North
Slope drops south across the Bering Strait into the Bering Sea by
Tuesday. Weak upper ridging will continue across Interior Alaska,
with embedded energy rotating north from the Gulf of Alaska low.
For the extended portion of the forecast, the upper low over the
Bering Sea will slowly move southeast across the Aleutian Chain.
Spread in the the guidance increases from Thursday to Saturday, so
forecast confidence lowers by that time. Weather across the region
will be dictated by individual waves rotating around the main low,
leading to further uncertainty. Overall, temperatures look to
remain mild across the West Coast and Interior, and slowly warm up
along the North Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures look to remain mild across Interior Alaska through
the next week.  Temperatures will be coolest Monday and Tuesday
as upper level energy moves across the region.  The effect on
temperatures looks minor, with around 5-10 degF of cooling.
Otherwise, temperatures look to remain in the mid 40s to upper 50s,
with perhaps a few low 60s in the lee of the Alaska Range. Gusty
Chinook winds will continue near Delta Junction into this evening,
with winds dissipating overnight. Humidity values have been slow
to fall with values around 30 percent. We will continue to monitor
the elevated fire weather conditions for this area. Once we get
through today, winds will decrease and humidity values are
forecast to be higher. As for precipitation, spotty showers will
be possible through Sunday, especially for the southeast zones
near Northway. Shower activity will spread northwest across
Interior Alaska by Monday and continue to lift northwest into
Tuesday as a upper wave transverses the area. A secondary round of
precipitation looks to follow suite from Thursday into Saturday,
as another piece of energy rotates northward out of the Gulf of
Alaska. The timing an exact track of this late week energy is
uncertain at this time.

Winter weather continues along the North Slope through much of Sunday.
An Arctic low will continue to slide southwest across the North
Slope with gusty winds, snow, low stratus and fog prevailing. High
elevations of the Brooks Range have seen strong winds, with gusts
in excess of 50 mph. Winds should subside by Monday night as the
upper low moves into the Bering Strait. Temperatures look to
remain cold through Monday, with highs in the single digits along
the coast, to 20s near the mountains. Warmer weather will finally
arrive for mid to late week, with highs in the 20s to 30s. Drier
conditions are also expected during this period, with any snow
remaining over the Lisburne Peninsula.

Strong winds will be the main concern for the next couple of days
for the Lisburne Peninsula, south across the Bering Strait to near
St. Lawrence Island. A tight gradient will keep strong
northeasterly flow across the region, with wind gusts in excess of
40 mph expected to continue. Current observations are not indicate
much blowing snow, but there could be localized areas of blowing
snow with reduced visibility. As the upper system drops south into
the Bering Sea, and then southeast into the Gulf of Alaska, the
gradient will weaken and winds subside. As for precipitation,
generally dry conditions are expected prevail along the West
Coast, as the axis of energy will remain to the east. Temperatures
look remain consistent, with 30s along the coast, and 40s inland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near Red Flag conditions will continue near Delta Junction through
this evening due to gusty Chinook winds and low humidity values.
Beyond this evening, humidity values look to remain near 30
percent through much of the several days, with values falling to
near 25 percent by Wednesday into Friday. Winds look to remain
light during this period. A few rain showers will also be possible
Monday, and again by late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Tanana River from Salcha
to Fairbanks due to high flows from snowmelt. A Flood Advisory
also continues for the Tanana River near the Rosie Creek
Subdivision, where minor street flooding continues. As of this
afternoon, the Yukon River breakup is 50 miles upstream of Circle.
There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front, and
should arrive near Circle early Sunday morning if the breakup
front does not stall. Small ice jams may be possible as the
breakup front moves downstream leading to minor or moderate
flooding.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ937-949.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808>810.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
     Flood Watch for AKZ840-844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-810-811-854-856-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-814-815-850-853-858-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
&&

$$