388
FXUS61 KAKQ 090019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
819 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are
expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push
through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level
trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday,
with dry conditions expected Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storm activity has been widely scattered this evening (as
expected) despite fairly decent instability (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and ~35 knots of deep layer shear due to a lack of any
substantial forcing. Any remaining showers/storms will come to
an end over the next couple of hours due to a lack of daytime
heating, with dry weather then expected for much of the night.
As we approach morning, rain chances (and potentially a few
thunderstorms, especially North Carolina) increase as a
decaying MCS (the activity currently over Tennessee) approaches
from the west. Mild tonight with low temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s (lower 60s Eastern Shore).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...The remnants of a decaying MCS will move
through the area Thursday morning and produce scattered showers
and storms. The threat for storms to become strong to severe
remains on the table, mainly south of I64, given 1000+ J/kg
MLCAPE, 45-50 kt of deep layer shear, and mid-level lapse rates
slightly greater than 7 C/km. SPC has the entire CWA under a
Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather with the main hazard of
concern being damaging wind gusts. PoPs will then start to die
off as we approach the evening hours. Highs will reach nearly
90 across the southern half of the FA with the northern half
remaining closer to 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the
model agreement is improved compared to yesterday`s 12Z runs.
The main weather maker will be yet another shortwave dropping
SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday.
This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low
chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading
through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be
cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system
(unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than
any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over
the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC.
The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the
deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of
the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are
drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over
the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday
with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next
upper trough approaches from the lower MS/TN Valley. Temps will
be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to
mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon-Tue (highs mid/upper 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Outside of any widely scattered showers or thunderstorms this
evening, VFR conditions are expected this evening through most
of tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday
morning and again Thursday evening into Thursday night. Any
showers/storms may produce brief periods of reduced VIS and
CIGs. Storms Thursday evening could be on the stronger side and
produce gusty winds.

Outlook: Drying out from W to E Thursday night, then VFR
Friday, but there will be a chance for showers/isolated tstms
redeveloping Friday afternoon and evening. Mainly dry Saturday,
but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Wed...The main feature of note during the period will
be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening
through tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt out
of the southwest until tomorrow afternoon when they start to
back to the east. Waves will be 1-3 ft through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth
of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal
flooding on tonight`s high tide cycle. Water levels along bay-
facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed
minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effort for these areas. Locations along and adjacent
to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but
fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood
Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere,
nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be
impactful enough for additional statements.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Elizabeth City tied its record high of 91 degrees today, which
was set back in 1964. All other climate sites fell short of
their record high temperatures today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...