Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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345 FXUS65 KCYS 110314 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 914 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Trending warmer through the weekend, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms. Severe weather is not expected. - A cold frontal passage is expected on Wednesday, with much of the region returning to below-normal temperatures and increased chances for rain and high-elevation snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A warming trend should persist across southeast WY & the western NE Panhandle as thermal profiles warm in response to weak upper- level ridging extending along the northern periphery of a fairly persistent, slow-moving closed low drifting across the 4 Corners region through the short term forecast period. Daytime highs may reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the high plains by Sunday afternoon as 700-mb temperatures climb to +6 to +8 deg C by 00z Monday. Despite the warming trend, it should be a some- what unsettled pattern w/ daily chances for showers and thunder- storms as multiple pieces of mid-level energy continuously pivot around the north side of the aforementioned low. Rain amounts do not look to be anything substantial given the lack of organized/ stronger dynamics. Weak CAPEs under 500 J/kg & modest deep layer shear will preclude any risk for strong/severe storms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A transient ridge will position itself across the Rockies for the early part of next week after this weekend`s cutoff flow finally ejects off to the east. Multi-model ensemble mean 700-mb temperatures will climb to around +6 to +8C between Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, supporting surface temperatures about 10F warmer than average for Monday afternoon. Lapse rates look fairly steep, but moisture won`t be particularly abundant with dewpoints in the 30s to mid 40s and precipitable water near average for this time of year. The result will be modest instability, but enough to get some thunderstorms going during the afternoon. A trough over the Pacific northwest will be approaching early next week, and a leading shortwave ejecting out will pass through Monday night providing a boost to lift. Shear looks unimpressive, but we could see some small hail and gusty winds with inverted-v soundings in place during the afternoon. The main trough axis approaches late Tuesday or early Wednesday, setting up lift for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Expect temperatures to be cooler than Monday for much of the area, except far SE Wyoming and the southern NE panhandle which should be similar. Slightly more shear could allow for more organized convection, but the setup is quite messy with forecast soundings showing backing wind profiles and muddled lifting mechanisms. However, this period Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning will probably be the best chance for appreciable precipitation during the upcoming week. Expect cooler conditions across the area Wednesday as 700-mb temperatures get knocked back down to near 0C. Lingering cloud cover and scattered showers will also be present. Model consistently falls apart for the end of the week, with some (GEFS members) showing an amplified ridge over the Pacific northwest, and others (ECMWF ensemble members) showing a more zonal flow pattern. Regardless, look for drier air to work in for Thursday and Friday, leading to temperatures back to near normal and more limited precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 905 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A trough aloft will slowly move from southern Nevada this evening to southeastern Utah Saturday evening. Wyoming TAFS...Clear skies will prevail tonight, with scattered clouds from 6000 to 8000 feet on Saturday. Winds will gust to 20 knots at Cheyenne and Laramie from 14Z to 20Z. Nebraska TAFS...Clear skies will prevail, with scattered clouds near 9000 feet at Sidney from 15Z to 01Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...RUBIN