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000
FXUS64 KLCH 160355
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1055 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Warm with a mix of clouds and sun across the NW Gulf Coast region
this afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower
80s amid increasing southerly flow.  Generally benign weather is
expected for the next couple of days, as an upper level trof and
associated SFC low translate EWD across the Plains on TUE, then
pivot NE toward the Great Lakes on WED.  The tightening pressure
gradient and LLJ advancing ahead of these features will result in
elevated and at times gusty south winds tonight, increasing and
nearing wind advisory criteria (20 mph) on TUE. This, in turn, will
maintain a steady influx of warm and moist air, helping buoy
overnight temperatures and keeping morning lows around 10 degrees
above seasonal normals. An approaching trailing SFC front is progged
to stall well to the NW of the area TUE night, leaving the warm and
humid airmass in place for WED, though winds will decrease
considerably as the gradient weakens and the LLJ pulls away. No rain
chances in the near term with a well defined capping inversion
forecast to hold showers/storms at bay.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The forecast period will begin with rather warm and humid conditions
as high pressure at the surface will ridge across from Florida and
low pressure will develop east of the Rockies. This will allow
southerly breezes to bring in Gulf moisture. With the high moisture
and unstable environment a few diurnal showers or storms will be
possible during the afternoon.

The next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
over the weekend. This is when a short wave will move across and
push a surface front with it. Lift with the front and short wave
will interact with the moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms
with the best time from late Saturday into early Sunday.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low clouds continue to produce MVFR conditions with patches of
VFR. Winds will remain robust from the south around 5 to 15 knots
with occasional gusts. Visibility restrictions will be unlikely
as winds will reduce fog formation. After sunrise VFR conditions
will return.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Modest and gusty south winds will continue and strengthen a bit
tonight and Tuesday as an area of low pressure forms and deepens
over the Plains. Small craft should exercise caution through
Tuesday night. Winds will ease on Wednesday as the low lifts off
toward the Great Lakes, with a generally light onshore flow
prevailing into the weekend. Precipitation chances are negligible
until the weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  85  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  69  82  70  82 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  69  84  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  70  82  70  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14