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000
FXUS64 KLIX 230909
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
409 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...Quiet Forecast with rain possibly returning next week...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast over the next few days and generally even into the
weekend is quiet with the only real noticeable change being warmer
temps and slowly increasing moisture. Clear skies and dry
conditions have led to a rather cool night with most of the area
in the 40s by 8z.

With one disturbance now well east of the mid Atlantic states and
another s/w dropping across the Great Lakes today weak northwest
flow will remain in place and this should provide us one more day
of rather nice conditions. Only possible weather issue today could
be rh values this afternoon which would mainly be a concern for
fire weather customers but dewpoints are already a little higher
than what models were indicating and even after we fully mix out
this afternoon min RH values will likely still remain in the 30%
range with possibly a few isolated spots dropping into the upper
20s.

Once the s/w over the Great Lakes moves into the northeastern
states tomorrow we will see a stout ridge begin to build over the
Plains and Continental Divide. That along with high pressure at
the sfc pushing farther east will lead to southeasterly and
southerly LL flow returning. LL temps will respond moderating
quickly but moisture will take a little longer to recover through
the week. LL temps could jump to around 16/17C at h925 by
tomorrow and then could approach 19 maybe 20C by Thursday. This
would translate to mid 70s to near 80 tomorrow and then lower 80s
for most of the area Thursday. NBM again seems to be warming us
up too fast with a few mid 80s tomorrow and possibly even upper
80s by Thursday. None of the MOS values are that bullish and the
expected LL temps don`t suggest that warm yet. Come Friday and
maybe into the weekend those temps look a little more possible.

No rain expected through this time and the only other small
impact to watch could be some fog tomorrow morning. LL moisture
will be slowly returning but we should still have one last decent
radiational cooling setup with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Not a whole lot to talk about in the extended. The next few
disturbances pass too far to the north and everything stays out
of the region until early/mid next week when we finally see
another shot of rain and a weak frontal passage.

Friday and through the weekend a series of disturbances will ride
northeast form the 4 corners across the Plains and into the Upper
MS Valley. These will all be displaced well off to our northwest
and north. This keeps the ridging in place across the southeastern
CONUS and what should be a warm weekend however, we will likely
see a part of the subtropical jet break off and surge across the
Lower MS Valley. If that occurs then we will see an increase in
cloud cover with a decent layer of high clouds expected across the
area.

After those disturbances through the weekend there should be
enough of a push on the ridge to finally break it down and by
late Monday into Tuesday we may see a trough pass through along
with a weak cold front. This would bring us a shot of rain but
nothing of any significant impact. /CAB/


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through the valid forecast period at all
terminals. However, for the next forecast package at 12z, some
consideration may need to be given to the potential for radiation
fog at KMCB around sunrise Wednesday. While NBM probabilities of
IFR visibilities are rather low, near 20 percent, that`s quite a
bit higher than the remaining terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The wind field will finally break down later this morning before
we see a return of southeasterly winds late today or overnight.
This is in response to the sfc high moving over the area and then
off to the east. No impacts expected for the next few days but
late in the work week as the sfc high gets farther to the east we
could see a few periods of moderate southerly and southeasterly
winds close to the coast due to diurnal fluctuations. This may
require brief periods of exercise cautiuon headlines. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  52  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  57  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  78  54  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  62  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  58  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB