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867
FXUS61 KLWX 071425
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1025 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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No changes to the forecast. A cold front, currently bisecting
the region into a northern half and southern half, will move
south of the region later this afternoon. A few storms are still
possible along the I-64 corridor. High pressure will bring
cooler and drier conditions to the region tonight through
Tuesday before hot and humid conditions return later this week
along with thunderstorm chances.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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- 1)) A cold front descends across the area through tonight. A
  couple of showers and a thunderstorm or two could develop
  along the I-64 corridor.

- 2) Briefly cooler conditions develop in onshore flow Monday
  into Tuesday.

- 3) Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return mid to late
  week, with heat index values possibly approaching 100.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front descends across the area through
tonight. A couple of showers and a thunderstorm or two could
develop along the I-64 corridor.

A surface cold front is bisecting our region into a northern and
southern half. Currently, the radar is quiet. However; with
additional heating this afternoon, we could see showers and a
few thunderstorms develop in parts of the central Shenandoah
Valley, across the Virginia Piedmont, and far southern Maryland.
The I-64 corridor could be focal zone for a strong thunderstorm
or two given the proximity of the front. The main threats will
be 55-65 mph wind gusts and small hail in the strongest
thunderstorms. Timing of this convection still appears to be
between 11am and 2pm. Cooler nighttime lows in the 60s (50s
mountains) are expected with lower humidity tonight into early
Monday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Briefly cooler conditions develop in onshore flow
Monday into Tuesday.

A rather stout area of surface high pressure is expected to
build from the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic early this week
in the wake of the front. This may actually push the front as
far south as Florida by mid week.

Locally, this area of high pressure results in cooler onshore
flow (relatively speaking, though highs still look to be in the
80s). Despite the onshore flow, the origin of the high pressure
is dry so dew points also look to be lower.

The ridge begins to break down on Tuesday as high pressure
nudges to the east. A rogue shower could approach the central
Appalachians Monday afternoon, but better chances for a shower
or thunderstorm exist over the Appalachians Tuesday afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return mid
to late week, with heat index values possibly approaching 100.

As the aforementioned area of high pressure slides offshore,
strong ridging aloft will build over the East Coast. This will
slide a dome of higher heat from the central CONUS into the
local area the second half of the week.

Recent bouts of heat have been somewhat dry/continental in
nature, but this next wave looks to have some more moist/tropical
component to it. The higher humidity may lend toward a more
notable heat index increase. I will caution that the NBM can
sometimes bias-correct too high for dew points in the longer
term depending on the setup (probably due to mesonets that read
too high during these setups), but even lower to mid 90s air
temps with mid to upper 60s dew points would result in 95-100 F
heat index values during the afternoon hours Thursday/Friday.

With the increasing heat and humidity comes increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances. With ridging nearby, flow aloft won`t
be particularly strong. But, the moderate to strongly unstable
airmass could still result in isolated/localized but still
potent storms capable of gusty winds.

A more appreciable front/trough may drift toward the area by
next weekend, though ensemble spread and therefore forecast
uncertainty increases by this time.
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&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR with mid/high clouds are expected for another hour or two
with gradual clearing this afternoon as a cold front slides to
the south. A shower or two can`t be ruled out just about
anywhere into the early afternoon, but there is a slightly
higher chance near the CHO terminal. Winds W/NW winds gust
15-20 kts into early this evening before becoming light N/NE
tonight.

NE to E flow is expected Monday into Monday night, becoming S
Tuesday through Wednesday then SW/W Thursday. VFR conditions
are anticipated with winds AOB 15 kts most of the time, though
some daytime gusts to near 20 kts can`t be ruled out. Despite
the onshore flow Monday, the origin (from a dry high) likely
precludes more widespread lower ceiling potential.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase the second half of the
week in typical pop up summer fashion.
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&&

.MARINE...
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West to northwest flow will increase over waterways and along
the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay through early this
evening as a cold front slides south and diurnal mixing
increases. Hot air over cooler water may preclude gustiness over
wider/eastern waterways. A shower or thunderstorm could
approach the waters near southern Maryland this afternoon.

Light north winds are expected tonight, turning northeast to
east on Monday. An increase in onshore flow is expected Monday
which will likely warrant additional SCAs. Dry weather is
expected during this time.

As high pressure drifts offshore Tuesday through Thursday,
southerly flow/channeling effects may prompt SCAs at times.
Winds may become more southwest/west Thursday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase the second half of the week.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538-542.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF
MARINE...KLW/DHOF