-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
570
FXUS61 KLWX 120755
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
355 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A potent upper low will pivot across the northeastern portion of
the forecast area today, bringing cool and unsettled conditions.
High pressure returns tonight into Monday. A slow moving low
pressure system will bring more unsettled weather Tuesday into
the middle of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A potent upper low spinning over the northeast CONUS will pivot
across northeast portions of the forecast area today. At the
surface, a cold front will finally push through the region,
which will turn winds out of the southwest. The combination of
these two features will keep it seasonably cool and unsettled
today with highs only reaching the 60s.

For tonight, the upper low may linger across northeast MD,
resulting in some lingering cloudcover as well. Elsewhere, skies
should clear out pretty efficiently as high pressure builds in
from the west. Low temperatures will again reach the 40s for
most (50s near the water).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For Monday, high pressure will move overhead and eventually
offshore, so expect dry conditions and high temperatures in mid
to upper 70s.

For Monday night, sky cover will be on the increase ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. Low temperatures will only drop
into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as an area of
low pressure approaches from our southwest. Given the warm and
moist air mass in place, could even see some locally heavy
rainfall during the afternoon. Severe threat at this time seems
rather low.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
On Wednesday, surface low pressure will likely be nearby or moving
off the coast. An upper trough will also be overhead. Enough
moisture will remain in place that showers will likely continue. A
few thunderstorms are also possible, but instability will be
limited. High temperatures will likely remain slightly below normal.
Since a closed low will potentially be involved, there is some
uncertainty with how quickly it will pull away. There does still
appear to be a brief period of ridging sometime in the Thursday to
Friday period. However, northeast flow between the low offshore and
high pressure well to the north could keep some extra low level
moisture and clouds around. If Thursday does end up mostly sunny,
there should be a corresponding slight boost to temperatures.

The next trough will quickly approach from the mid Mississippi
Valley Friday into Saturday. Shower chances increase as a result.
Instability appears to remain limited with this system as well, so
thunderstorm chances are more in question. Southerly flow could
result in another slight increase to temperatures, but this may be
offset by clouds/precip...so overall remaining seasonable.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front sweeps through early this morning, causing winds
to shift northwest behind the front. Gusts to around 20 knots
are likely from late morning through the afternoon Sunday.

VFR conditions expected through Monday as high pressure
returns. Winds will also taper off a good bit on Monday as well
and gradually turn out of the south.

By Tuesday, winds remain southerly and begin to pick up ahead of
an approaching low pressure. Rain chances will be on the
increase as well with numerous showers and some thunderstorms
expected. This could lead to flight restrictions at all
terminals potentially.

Sub-VFR ceilings may attempt to lift Wednesday as low pressure pulls
offshore. However, showers will likely continue and a few
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. High pressure may build in
Thursday, but some low level moisture could linger if the low
pressure system is slow to move offshore. Northerly winds may gust
up to 20 kt at times both Wednesday and Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds remain somewhat elevated over the Chesapeake Bay this
morning in the wake of a potent squall line that pushed through
overnight. Winds should diminish, at least briefly, after 4 AM
and continuing through mid-morning.

After that, winds turn northwest behind the cold front late this
morning into the afternoon, and could gust to SCA levels for a
few hours during the afternoon. Winds diminish Sunday night into
Monday as high pressure builds into the region.

SCA conditions will likely return on Monday afternoon/evening,
continuing into Tuesday, due to southerly channeling of winds
up the Chesapeake Bay. Shower and thunderstorm chances also
return Tuesday as an area of low pressure approaches from the
southwest.

Low pressure will gradually move offshore Wednesday into Thursday.
Northerly winds may necessitate Small Craft Advisories for portions
of the waters during this time. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue Wednesday before drier conditions arrive Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Continued southerly flow, as well as coming off of a King Tide,
have continued to result in elevated tidal anomalies. As a
result. A brief directional change in the winds out of the NW
could briefly drop anomalies a smidge today. However, southerly
flow will return quickly late tonight and really for the
foreseeable future. Additional period of coastal flooding seem
likely in the coming days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this
     afternoon for MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ016-
     018.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ017.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ530>534-537-538-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ531-532-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ533>537-541>543.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL