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000
FXUS61 KLWX 121811
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
211 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north of the Great Lakes region today,
while an associated cold front progresses off to our east. A
reinforcing cold front will move through tonight. High pressure
builds to our south Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will
pass to our north Sunday night into Monday, allowing for some
precipitation to return. Unsettled weather may be possible late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of low pressure is continuing to track further north of
the Great Lakes early this afternoon, with an associated cold
front departing to the east of the area locally. A few showers
are beginning to track across the area ahead of a reinforcing
front tracking from the west. This will continue through much of
the afternoon and evening before dissipating. Cannot completely
rule an isolated thunderstorm later this afternoon, especially
across the far western portions of the region as well as
northeast MD. Otherwise, the main hazard for today are the gusty
westerly winds across most of the area. Wind Advisories remain
in effect across the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge zones
through Saturday afternoon. Outside of the advised area,
sporadic gusts up to 40 knots will be possible, especially just
east of the Blue Ridge and across NE MD. Highs today will top
out in the mid to upper 60s across the lower elevations, with
upper 40s expected for the higher terrain.

The reinforcing cold front will move through the area tonight.
The strongest wind field will move in behind this front. It`s
likely that many locations will remain windy through the night,
especially in the mountains. Lows overnight should be in the 40s
to lower 50s for most, with 30s in the mountains. A few upslope
snow showers may be possible late tonight across the highest
terrain (over 3000 ft). In those locations, a brief coating of
snow may be possible overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The tighter pressure gradient will continue across the area
through parts of the day on Saturday as the low pressure system
continues to push further off to the north of the region. Before
then, gusty winds will continue to impact the area through
Saturday afternoon at least. Confidence has increased in higher
gusts tomorrow, therefore the Wind Advisory has been extended to
include all zones along and west of the Blue Ridge. Further
extensions may be needed leading up to the day on Saturday.
Clouds will likely begin to clear out by the afternoon hours on
Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected. Highs will top
out in the mid to upper 60s for the lower elevations with 50s
across the mountains Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will
drop down into the 40s Saturday night, with winds diminishing
out of the west-northwest.

Southwest flow will build in on Sunday, with a weak shortwave
moving across to the north. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening with
highs rising back into the mid to upper 70s for most areas.
Shower chances continue Sunday night with lows dropping down
into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will slide across the region Monday and Monday
night. A lingering rain shower could accompany the front.
Otherwise, dry conditions and warm temperatures in the 70s are
expected during the period with Monday night temperatures 7 to
10 degrees becoming cooler than Sunday night`s lows with the
passing front.

The front will stall briefly across northern parts of North Carolina
before returning north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
could develop along and ahead of the warm front in our CWA. Highs on
Tuesday will again reach the middle 70s.

As the warm front moves north into Pennsylvania on Wednesday, rain
showers and a few thunderstorms could erupt with additional daytime
heating and temperatures reaching the middle to upper 70s.

A low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes with a
trailing cold front that is expected to move across our region
Thursday into Thursday night. Most of the region will be dry to
start Thursday into midday, before daytime heating and additional
warmth and moisture triggers showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon. Highs on Thursday should make a run at the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will continue to be quite gusty out of the west-southwest
today, and remain gusty out of the west-northwest Saturday.
Gusts of 30 to 40 knots should be common through Saturday
afternoon. A few showers and potentially even a stray
thunderstorm may develop late this afternoon. The chance for a
thunderstorm is far to low to mention directly in the TAFs
(around 10-20 percent). Drier conditions are expected this
weekend. It will remain breezy on Sunday, with winds out of the
southwest gusting to around 15-25 knots.

VFR conditions Monday through early Tuesday. Winds northwest 10 to
15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Monday and Monday night. Winds
becoming northeast then southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
A reinforcing cold front will move through tonight, causing
winds to turn west-northwesterly tomorrow. Gale Warnings remain
in effect for all waters through the day tomorrow. Gusts to
near, or potentially even in excess of 40 knots will be possible
over the waters during that time. Additional SCAs will likely
be needed within southwesterly flow Saturday night into Sunday.

No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night. Winds northwest 10
to 15 knots Monday and Monday night. Winds becoming northeast around
10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong offshore flow has developed and this will continue through
Saturday before gradually weakening Saturday evening. Anomalies will
continue to fall during this time. However, water level will still
be close to minor flooding thresholds in sensitive areas (Washington
DC, Annapolis, and Straits Point) since anomalies were high to start
this morning and the flow will be south of west.

Anomalies will fall sharply tonight through Saturday and low water
levels are likely later Saturday into Saturday night around times of
low tide. The change from high anomalies to low anomalies will cause
a strong current during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ001-501-502.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ003.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ054.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ503-504-507-508.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ025>031.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ501>506.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     WVZ050>053-055.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...KJP/ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/ADM
MARINE...KLW/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL