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000
FXUS61 KLWX 151829
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
229 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will drop southward through the area tonight,
before returning northward as a warm front on Wednesday. A
strong cold front will move through this weekend, with high
pressure building in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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Severe Thunderstorrm Watch #109 is valid until 10 PM since it
covers most of VA to the NC border, although storms are likely
to exit our forecast around 7 PM. Very steep mid-level lapse
rates of around 8C/km due to 500 mb temps of around -20C were
observed on earlier upper air data and more recent MetOp-C
NUCAPS data. This will contribute to a very favorable
environment for large hail perhaps approaching significant hail
up to 2 inches in diameter. Storms will be fast movers moving
around 35 knots and given large dewpoint depressions and strond
mid-level flow may be also capable of producing strong to
damaging winds. Storms should exit our CWA by 8 PM, likely a
little sooner than that.

Rapidly clearing skies are expected later this evening behind
exiting cold front. High pressure builds over the area overnight
into Tue morning with quiet conditions overnight through Tue
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

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Showers return Tuesday afternoon across southwest areas as
front begins to return north as a warm front. Scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms will spread northeast late Tue
night/Wed morning as warm front attempts to lift through the
area. More showers appear possible Wed night as occluded front
crossest the area, although it isn`t likely that it will be
raining the whole time. It will be cooler Wed with highs around
70.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

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Models continue to show varying solutions regarding the synoptic
pattern at the end of this week into the weekend. A weak disturbance
and surface low over the area Thursday morning will bring a chance
of showers, though rain chances are not particularly high at this
time. After that, models vary on when/how fast a cold front sweeps
through the area. The GFS is more progressive, showing a clean FROPA
sometime Friday night, then high pressure building in from the north
through the weekend. While the ECMWF, indicates a sagging front that
slowly moves through the area making for a wet weekend.

The temperature forecast will be dependent on what happens with the
aforementioned front. Currently have above normal highs in the low to
mid 70s Thursday through Saturday, becoming near normal in the 60s
for Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Scattered showers are possible Thursday and Friday at all terminals,
though any impacts are likely to be minimal. VFR conditions prevail,
with brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible in any heavy
shower or storm. Northeast winds around 10kt, with some gusts to
20kt possible each afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...

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Near-SCA winds are possible in northeast flow Thursday afternoon
over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with gusts of 15kt or
less elsewhere. A cold front will be near the area Friday, and could
cross the waters by Friday night. Northeast to east winds will be
around 10-15kt.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...LFR/KRR
MARINE...LFR/KRR