Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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713 FXUS64 KLZK 090428 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1128 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Data from local radars indicate that the forecast area is currently precipitation free. Activity in central and southwest Missouri continues to slowly increase in coverage and intensity. Forecasts continue to reflect expected convective evolution this afternoon and evening. A cold front across central Oklahoma is expected to promote explosive convective development this afternoon. The convection then should form in a linear fashion, as it approaches the forecast area. Instability and vertical wind profiles support thunderstorms capable of all hazards late this afternoon and evening. Of particular note is a near term parameter space supporting giant hail in the western half of the forecast area. This thunderstorm episode should move south and east of the forecast area by sunrise Thursday. The previously mentioned front will be in the vicinity of southern sections to support widely scattered shower development Thursday afternoon. Expect noticeably drier and cooler conditions for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 High pressure will accompany the upper level ridge as it attempts to build over the Southern Plains. This will provide a continued chance of cooler and drier air for the majority of the weekend with max/min temperatures ranging about 5-7 degrees below seasonal normals. Rain chances will be re-introduced by the second half of Sunday as the Southwest flow returns and Gulf moisture returns to the midsouth. The GFS is indicating a cutoff low to move right over North Arkansas on Tuesday with a brief clearing ahead of the next weather system expected in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Scattered strong/SVR TSRA will continue to drop ESE into the overnight hrs...eventually dropping SE of AR by before sunrise Thu. Expect some MVFR conditions with this activity...with some improvements in the wake of this convection. NRLY flow will bring drier air into the area...with dominant VFR conditions expected for the latter half of this TAF period. Some additional SHRA may return for late Thu afternoon/evening for central/SRN sections. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 84 55 75 / 70 10 10 0 Camden AR 69 86 60 79 / 70 20 30 0 Harrison AR 56 77 52 72 / 70 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 66 85 59 79 / 70 10 20 0 Little Rock AR 67 86 60 78 / 80 10 10 0 Monticello AR 71 87 62 78 / 60 20 30 0 Mount Ida AR 64 84 58 79 / 60 20 20 0 Mountain Home AR 60 78 52 73 / 80 0 0 0 Newport AR 65 82 57 75 / 80 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 84 60 77 / 80 10 20 0 Russellville AR 62 84 57 78 / 60 10 10 0 Searcy AR 65 83 56 76 / 80 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 67 83 60 74 / 90 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...62