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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201118 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cool temperatures are in place across the area this morning with
the cold front south of the state. Sfc winds are largely out of
the N/NE with Td values ranging from the 30s F across the north to
the 50s F across the south. A few disturbances will traverse the
W/SW H500 flow across the state and will help in the development
of occasional rain and isolated thunderstorms through the period.
The most widespread activity is expected to occur later today and
tonight across southern parts of the state. Far northern Arkansas
is expected to see little to no precip out of this setup.
Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected to remain south of the
forecast area.

Precip will come to an end by mid-day Sunday as an H500 trough
moves south toward Arkansas from the Central Plains. Sfc ridging
will build south toward the area as well and cooler, dry air will
be seen. As the ridge settles over the state by Sunday night,
winds will go calm and sky conditions will become clear. This
will provide an opportunity for temps to fall rapidly through the
overnight hours. By Monday morning, temperatures across portions
of northern/western Arkansas could fall into the 30s F.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, but some
locations could see a brief period of frost development by
daybreak Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Monday and Tuesday:

Still appears that a period of quieter wx wl be noted across the
Natural State early next week. An upper lvl trof wl cont working to
the east of the FA on Mon, followed by a NW steering flow aloft thru
the middle of the week. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure wl initially be
centered ovr AR Mon morning, then shift into the southeastern states
by Tue.

After a cool start to the day on Mon, the mercury wl climb close to
seasonal norms by the aftn, with highs topping out in the mid 60s to
the lower 70s. S/SE winds wl return to the Mid-South starting later
Mon and Mon ngt, as the assocd sfc high departs to the east. This wl
allow temps to modify heading into Tue, along with a gradual return
of low level moisture. A weak front is fcst to apch the AR/MO border
late Tue and Tue ngt, with just a slight chc (20%) of a shower or
storm.

Wednesday through Friday:

Primary fcst concern during this timeframe rmns the eventual
southward progression of the aforementioned bndry and the resulting
PoP trends. Current thought is the fnt wl stall out over southern
AR, then work back to the north as a warm fnt later in the week in
response to an upper lvl storm system wl move out of the 4-Corners
region towards the Plains States.

The system is progged to eventually track to the N of AR late in the
PD. The presence of the lingering sfc front, along with incrsg lift/
WAA, wl allow for PoPs to incrs ovr much of the FA. Guidance still
keeps the main focus for rain chcs (30-40%) ovr the NW part of the
FA thru Fri, with lesser chcs to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR and dry conditions are expected across N AR terminals through
the period. Elsewhere, MVFR and lower cigs/vsby will persist or
develop through the period. Rain with occasional TS activity will
be common across at least the southern half of the state through
early Sunday morning. Winds will largely be out of the N/NE
through the period with the highest gusts expected this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  45  65  40 /  20  20   0   0
Camden AR         57  45  65  40 /  90  90  10   0
Harrison AR       62  39  62  37 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  45  65  40 /  80  70   0   0
Little Rock   AR  62  48  66  45 /  60  60   0   0
Monticello AR     59  48  64  43 /  70  80  20   0
Mount Ida AR      58  44  66  39 /  90  70   0   0
Mountain Home AR  64  41  64  37 /  10  10   0   0
Newport AR        64  46  64  41 /  20  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     60  48  63  42 /  70  80  10   0
Russellville AR   62  44  67  40 /  40  30   0   0
Searcy AR         62  45  65  39 /  30  40   0   0
Stuttgart AR      61  48  63  43 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...67